Analysis: McCain struggles to regain footingCONTENTS:
For an unpopular president, Bush sure can still bring in the dollars in fundraising. They sneak him in, they take no pictures with him and yet he has brought more money in for Republican National Committee than has been raised by the entire Democratic National Committee. He has already clocked 31 political events this year, raising nearly $70 million for GOP candidates and the national and state parties, according to the Republican National Committee. The tally puts the president on track to meet or exceed the amount he raised before the midterm elections in 2006, according to GOP officials. A man who was a senior adviser to Gore, Michael Feldman, shows what a fine line Bush has to walk with his popularity rating being so low when he says, "His strongest contribution will be going to high-dollar fundraisers and raising as much money for the campaign and the RNC as he can, and staying as far removed as possible from the McCain campaign in the process." [1] Despite Barack Obama's phenomenal grassroots personal fundraising ability, the DNC has not come close to matching that type of enthusiasm, and the RNC, with considerable help from President George Bush, has managed to level the monetary playing field between Obama and McCain. The fact Bush's fund raising capabilities, while being limited because of his overall popularity being at the lowest point, has still brought in more monies than the entire Democratic National Committee, just goes to show that despite his problems, his overall fundraising capabilities are a force to be reckoned with still. The president is not done yet either, as his chief political adviser, Barry Jackson, makes clear when he states that Bush spent the better part of last year laying the groundwork to help whoever the candidate for the GOP would end up being, and Jackson says that Bush will continue to do so for the"candidates from the top of the ticket on down."[1]  As you might expect on a holiday weekend with four months still to go to Election Day, things appear to be fairly quiet on the campaign trail this morning. The White House now says that Bush will speak to the delegates in St. Paul on the first night of the convention -- Monday, Sept. 1 -- and the Times says it is unlikely he and McCain will make a joint appearance. The Times also says the trick is giving Bush a "proper send-off. while hustling him out the door in time for Mr. McCain to look like his own man." In a poll of "insiders" from both major parties, the Journal finds that the pros from each side agree on the biggest vulnerabilities for both Obama and McCain. For the Democrat, it's "inexperience." For the Republican, it's "President Bush's unpopularity." Charlie Cook, who writes a weekly Cook Report column for the Journal, today focuses on why it's likely to be a close presidential race even though "Democrats should be beating the daylights out of the GOP" based on voters' views about key issues. [2] McCain is moving away from the unpopular President Bush if not from the Republican Party itself. He emphasizes bipartisanship while pressing two issues that resonate strongly with voters of all stripes. He'stood up to the president and sounded the alarm on global warming,' one McCain commercial says. Obama, for his part, broke from the left by backing new rules for the government's terrorist eavesdropping program, straddling a Supreme Court ruling striking down a gun ban and objecting to the justices' decision outlawing executions of child rapists. He even quoted conservative hero Ronald Reagan's 'trust but verify' line in reacting to North Korea's latest agreement on nuclear weapons. His leadoff campaign commercial cast him as the embodiment of the center and pitched family values, patriotism, 'welfare to work' and lower taxes. It stressed 'love of country' and 'working hard without making excuses' ' echoes of Bill Clinton. McCain naturally may be better positioned to capture more of the middle; he came out of the GOP's center to dispatch liberal Rudy Giuliani on his left and conservative Mitt Romney and Christian evangelical Mike Huckabee on his right.[3] "I wasn't saying anything that I hadn't said before." Obama has always said his promise to end the war would require consultations with military commanders and, possibly, flexibility. The Illinois senator also said he and rival-turned-ally Hillary Rodham Clinton plan to help each other raise money in a series of fundraisers in New York next week. Two events are scheduled for Wednesday night _ one to raise money for his general election campaign and one to help Clinton pay off debts from her primary campaign. A third fundraiser, for Obama, is a breakfast Thursday morning with women donors that Clinton, a New York senator, will attend. The fundraisers will be the first joint appearances by the former foes since their lovefest in Unity, N.H., on June 27. The events were put together to showcase his campaign's commitment to helping Clinton retire her debt and her commitment to helping him get elected, Obama told reporters. The candidate said his aides and those to former President Clinton are still arranging their first campaign appearances together. What role Bill Clinton will play in Obama's campaign has been a glaring question mark ever since the former president made comments earlier this year that Obama's supporters said injected race into the nomination contest. "I'm looking forward to his advice and counsel and participation in the race ahead," Obama said. Earlier Saturday, Obama took a swipe at Republican rival John McCain, saying that for "someone who has been in Washington for 30 years he's got a pretty slim record on education and when he has taken a stand it has been the wrong one."[4] When it comes to talking about how politics ought to be conducted, both John McCain and Barack Obama say all the right things. McCain irked some on the Republican right when he roundly condemned a Cincinnati radio host's reference to "Barack Hussein Obama," then suspended a low-level staffer for sending out a link to video of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama frustrated some of his more aggressive supporters when he refused to revisit the legal and personal foibles of the Clinton family and again last week when he scolded a growing chorus of Democrats who have disparaged McCain's military record. The problem, as these incidents show, is there is little any candidate can do to control what comes out of the mouths of their supporters or surrogates, let alone the actions of independent groups unaffiliated with the campaigns. Yet when retired Gen. Wesley Clark says something stupid, it not only damages Obama -- who has "enjoyed" the former Clinton backer's support for barely a month now -- it reminds the public of McCain's undeniable bravery in service to his country.[5] Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain was AWOL during the slugfest, a mistake now marginally corrected. Polls have him either neck-and-neck with Obama, or trailing the man who spent his tenure as a U.S. senator from Illinois running for president, so it remains to be seen if McCain really is the luckiest man since Ringo Starr. Remember, McCain's race is against the other candidate, and the same media that secured Clinton's demise by ignoring Obama's extremist background, the lack of evidence he's a "uniter" and gaffes that would've made others a laughingstock.[6] The political environment is dreadful for the GOP, with Bush's approval rating at low levels as the country teeters economically and fights two wars. Asked Saturday what he thinks about McCain's apparent pride in underdog status, Obama told reporters traveling with him: "Two years ago, John McCain was the putative Republican nominee who has been part of the Washington establishment for years and who touts all his Washington experience, versus me. The notion that somehow I'm the heavy favorite in this race belies recent political history and a lot of American history.[7] And, Obama's campaign is far from flawless. McCain also is beefing up his staff with more presidential campaign veterans under the guidance of Schmidt, a top aide in President Bush's re-election effort and the operative who led Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to a come-from-behind victory in California two years ago. The campaign will try to showcase its efforts to restore discipline next week when McCain announces a "jobs first" economic plan and tours competitive states. For now, GOP insiders are cautious as they watch for improvement — and they should be.[7] 'I'm liberal in some areas and I'm conservative in others,' says the undecided moderate from Stevensville, Mont., who is 69 and shuns party labels. Unlike the GOP, she supports abortion rights and declares 'to each his own' on gay marriage. She's unsettled about both candidates. Obama's 'inexperience and his voting record on gun control' bug her; she owns two handguns, a shotgun and a rifle and is still 'a pretty good shot.' She doesn't like McCain's 'vacillating' or stances on the environment and comprehensive immigration reform. 'I do not believe in global warming,' she says. McCain on foreign policy 'just doesn't make a lot of sense,' but Obama's 'abundance of gun control' irks this gun owner, as does the Democrats' education platform. Not that he has time to follow the campaign closely; Donovan travels 150 miles roundtrip to build bridges for 14 hours a day. The commute costs his one-income household $50 in tolls and $220 in fuel each week. He and his wife haven't had health care coverage for two years. She's on disability after seven mild strokes. Her student loan debt is growing.[3] When it comes to message and strategy, McCain has appeared to flounder. He hasn't settled on one theme and can't seem to stick with a particular line of argument in favor of his candidacy for more than a couple days. His attempts to derail Obama are scattershot; the campaign simply takes advantages of openings Obama creates rather than creating a negative narrative against the Democrat. And, McCain's fundraising events have driven his campaign schedule, often putting him in solid Republican states instead of swing states likely to decide the election. As the sleepy summer pre-convention window opens, Obama is running TV ads in 18 states while McCain focuses on 11 for now and the Republican National Committee bolsters his efforts in the Great Lakes region.[7] Even most yellow-dog Democrats probably understand that can only help McCain. By the same token, when state Republican parties ignore McCain's protests and air spots that feature Wright or include a slap at Michelle Obama, they're hurting their own cause. Americans -- especially the independents who will decide this election -- are sick and tired of politics that amount to little more than trash-talking. They want to hear what the next president intends to do to preserve their jobs or protect the nation or reduce gas prices. This ought to be a contest between two thoughtful and accomplished men with distinct life stories and very different ways of seeing the world. Their debate should be pointed and, at times, tough. It also should stick to matters of real importance. That's why Obama should stop stalling and do the joint appearances with McCain that he promised. Why supporters of each ought to think before they talk.[5] Davis also makes the point that the historical pattern of elections shows that "in the closing days, often literally the last weekend, Republican moderate conservative undecided "leaners" and Democratic social conservatives who up to then have been soft for the Democratic candidate or undecided, break disproportionately for the more conservative Republican candidate. While they are not great in number, they can swing a close election, especially in the battleground states (as they did in Ohio and Florida in 2000 and 2004)". Read all those fancy descriptions as white people with fears and prejudices. To win, therefore, Obama has to carry these voters. In Davis' view, Hillary, as Obama's running mate for the vice presidency, could swing it for him. This seems an unlikely scenario right now despite the attempted show of unity by Obama and Hillary after the bruising contest they conducted for the Democratic Party nomination.[8] The Hillary Factor is especially important with older women voters, says Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida professor who specializes in Florida politics. 'So many of them still want Hillary on the ticket,' MacManus said of something that's now considered unlikely at best. 'They won't vote for McCain, but the danger is that they might stay home. Older Jewish voters, who make up a significant bloc of Democratic votes on the southeast coast, are also wary of Obama, says longtime state Sen. Steve Geller, D-Cooper City ' both because many supported Clinton, and because they're concerned about Obama's positions on Israel. The former Clinton voters who threaten to stay home are now realizing the potential impact of that action, he says. 'You ask them if they want the war to continue, if they want to see more ultra-conservative judges appointed to the Supreme Court, if they want to do something about the economic situation that's developed under Republican leadership, and they realize how important it is' to vote for Obama, said Geller.[9] Obama has had trouble attracting even Democratic Hispanics, and McCain may be the beneficiary. His position on immigration also helps him with that group, although it's angered more conservative GOP voters. McCain needs to attract more female voters as well as stress his experience, especially in security matters, MacManus said. Women turn out more than men, and for older voters who remember the Depression and World War II, she said, experience is a greater concern. Obama's recently hired Florida campaign manager Steve Schale, a veteran of numerous other statewide and legislative races, says the campaign is well aware of all those needs. Black voters have already broken turnout records for the primaries, and he promises the campaign's work to register more and get them to the polls will continue, along with efforts to court former Clinton backers and reassure the Jewish community. It's natural that some Democratic factions disagreed during the hard-fought primary process.[9] 'I like McCain more because I'm concerned about Obama. This voting group's views cross some of the usual lines. For instance, they overwhelmingly favor abortion rights and legal rights for same-sex couples, typically Democratic and liberal positions. They also overwhelmingly say cutting taxes should be a high priority, typically a Republican and conservative refrain. These voters say they are far less interested in cultural issues and far more interested in bread-and-butter subjects like health care and Social Security. 'The center of the American electorate ' moderates, independents and ticket splitters ' is an amalgam of disparate interests with the following commonality: all are a few points from the ideological center of the country, and they tend to be fiscally conservative and socially tolerant,' said Greg Strimple, a Republican pollster in New York.[3] Luckily, the majority of the public has realized how dangerous it is to be bamboozled by ads or punditry. The Iraq War has gone the way of one of those once advertised drugs since taken off the market because of severe or fatal side effects. Only those who want to make profit off such a drug or those addicted to that drug would wish the drug to still be 'available'. I think what we are seeing is that Obama is competing against a committee of power players; he is not really competing against a candidate. McCain is, at this point, a puppet who has been effectively taken over by the players who wish to perpetuate a continuation of what Bush/Cheney began. The 'committee' running against Obama is intending to scatter shot and inject into the public a host of similar themes in hopes that those coalesce like a new drug ad campaign into an effective trashing of Obama's brand. The MSM/punditry is obviously doing all they can to assist in that endeavor, especially to the point of playing on and endlessly 'interpreting' the slightest variant in Obama's message to build a case of 'Obama isn't what he seems'.[10] A recent AP-Yahoo News poll found that 15 per cent of voters considered themselves moderates without a clear choice of candidate. Tacking to the centre in search of these votes is hardly a new strategy for U.S. presidential candidates after winning the primaries with a more radical agenda. It carries risks for Mr Obama because his brand rests on his promise to deliver a new kind of politics. If he begins to look like just another flip-flopping politician as the Republicans are portraying him he could lose the grassroots energy that has powered his campaign.[11] If that large majority of white men and white women vote for Obama, it would indicate that mainstream America has matured and overcome the prejudice and bigotry that I knew when I went to school there in Boston, and encountered black people who had never socialised with whites, and whites who would never dream of socialising with blacks. That would be a major step forward in realising the dream of Martin Luther King that "one day on the red hills of Georgia, the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood". It would be a wonderful development in the U.S. itself. Black people would, at last, feel that their citizenship is equal to white people. White people would feel that they had, at last, laid down the heavy burden of slavery's consequences, for in helping to elect Obama, they would have demonstrated their acceptance of black people as their equal - with the entitlement to lead a country in whose development black people played as significant a role as whites. Such an America, as long as there is no triumphalism by black people that "it is our time now", would be stronger as a nation than at any time in its history. It would be an America that the rest of the world - Christian, Muslim, Hindu or Jew - would be compelled to respect. If Obama remains true to the promise that he has offered, not only to the American people but to the people of the world who cheer for him every day, then America could oversee a new age of enlightenment where dialogue with a perceived enemy could avert war and carnage, and where reasonableness and responsibility would replace chauvinism and coercion.[8] As Davis indicates, Obama's narrow lead comes at a time when all the bad news is on the McCain side of the political equation. These include: "Bush's below 30% approval ratings, fuel prices skyrocketing, and McCain himself conveying neither coherent themes nor projecting positively in the daily TV sound bites".[8] Obama also appeared slow to get behind Florida's efforts to have all Democrats seated at the national convention, Geller and Coker said. That's caused some lingering resentment as well. 'Florida Democrats, especially in Southeast Florida, are activists, and activists don't like hearing their votes might not count,' Coker said. Like Obama, McCain also has specific demographic groups and areas he needs to carry.[9] Reading through the taxes Obama wants to raise is like listening to Bubba telling Forrest Gump how many ways one can cook shrimp. Shouldn't it be easy defeating an opponent sounding notes this dissonant to mainstream American ears? Not if you ditch your base to court moderates. Conservatives are principled; taking their votes for granted will lose McCain this election.[6] One intriguing possibility, if Obama doesn't target a single state or try to amplify the change message: Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island. That state's four reliably Democratic electoral votes aren't in doubt and Reed is unknown nationally, but he could help Obama in several ways. He's a Catholic with working-class roots (his father was a school janitor), and could enhance the ticket's appeal to those swing voters. He has expertise on issues at the center of the campaign debate, economics and the housing crisis. More important, he would offset Obama's lack of national security experience.[12] For now, McCain's campaign is roughly 300-strong compared with Obama's 1,000-person plus operation. Obama had a campaign in just about every state during the long Democratic primary, and he has started bolstering the remnants of those existing networks. His aides also boast of a hefty grass-roots organization, a "persuasion army" of allies who will reach out to neighbors, friends and relatives. That's reminiscent of Bush's 2004 campaign.[7] The Washington Post notes that Bush is as strong as ever in the less public area of fundraising for down-ticket Republicans. Bush has done 31 events this year, bringing in $70 million for GOP candidates and state parties. Vets For Freedom, a pro-Iraq War political action committee, is poised to launch major ad campaign for this general election season starting this coming week.[10] 'The first thing McCain has to do is not take Florida for granted,' said Mac Stipanovich, a Republican strategist in Tallahassee who's led campaign efforts for at least three GOP Florida governors as well as presidential candidates. 'When you don't have as much money, and you have to make decisions about where you spend that money, it's tempting' to assume Florida, with its history of Republican support, will back McCain. That would be a mistake, Stipanovich said. McCain also must remain a 'moderate conservative,' he said, explaining the conservative range can go from 'fire-breathing, right-wing head bangers' to conservative in name only.[9] Nothing much is, from either candidate. They aren't uniformly conservative or liberal, and they don't fit strict Republican or Democratic orthodoxy. They aren't typically engaged in politics, and they don't much care about the campaign. Like so many others, they are extraordinarily pessimistic. 'To me, it's not about the party, it's about who is the best person for the job,' says Pam Robinett, 47, from Wellington, Kan., who always votes.[3] The survey, conducted by Knowledge Networks, found that three in four Republicans and three in four conservatives are backing McCain, while Obama has nearly identical support among Democrats and liberals. Both are tacking away from their party's ideological ends to appeal to this unpredictable swath in between.[3] Democrats have America begging at the feet of oil sheiks. They ensure high gasoline prices by refusing to harvest our own resources like Australia, Brazil and Norway have done and done well. McCain should denounce Obama and his party for capitulating to those using environmentalism to hide anti-capitalist and anti-American agendas.[6] We are the underdog. That's what I like to be," the GOP nominee-in-waiting frequently tells donors these days, keenly aware not only of his woes but also his proven comeback ability: He won his party's nomination despite the implosion of his campaign last summer. One year later, and now in the general election, McCain's troubles are so acute that he recently gave senior adviser Steve Schmidt "full operational control" of the day-to-day campaign and, effectively, scaled back the duties of campaign manager Rick Davis.[7] A convention is a pivot point, and the theatrics and imagery are often more important than the words. For McCain, the convention imagery will be especially important, because he must show that he wants to take the nation in a new direction, away from Bush, yet he cannot escape Bush's dominance of Republican Party politics for the last eight years.[13] Incomes rose faster -- weekly earnings were up 6.4 percent, compared with 1.3 percent under Bush -- and Clinton left office with a $128 billion budget surplus, while the Congressional Budget Office projects a deficit of $357 billion for 2008. For McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, backing Bush-like policies is a way to solidify his support among orthodox supply-side Republicans who might be suspicious of his occasional maverick tendencies. Even though the Arizona senator voted against Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, calling them too expensive and skewed toward the rich, he now wants to make them permanent. McCain, 71, would also add significant new tax relief of his own. He says he would scale back the alternative minimum tax, a levy originally aimed at wealthy Americans that, because it isn't indexed for inflation, is increasingly ensnaring the middle class; double the personal exemption for dependents to $7,000; and cut the corporate rate to 25 percent from 35 percent.[14] The likely Democratic nominee supports a child-care credit for poor families, and would roll back some of the Bush cuts that went to households with incomes above $250,000. His plan is reminiscent of 1993 legislation signed by Clinton that reduced taxes for 15 million low-income families and implemented what the press dubbed a ''millionaire surcharge'' -- a 39.6 percent rate that applied to households earning more than $250,000. ''Both their tax proposals have a back-to-the-future quality,'' says Leonard Burman, director of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center in Washington. Neither of their proposals would pay for itself.[14] Andrew and Harrison counties have been almost as dependable. On the Democratic side of the street, Buchanan County usually has most voters going for its nominee. At times, the 16-county region has achieved unanimity in its presidential preferences, like in 2004 when all backed the re-election bid of President Bush and 1984 when President Reagan got his second term. The sweep was almost that when those two presidents earned their first terms. Buchanan County proved the lone holdout in both cases.[15] The last time Republicans dealt with the passing of the torch, in 1988, the circumstances were very different. President Ronald Reagan was surging in popularity, and the big fear was that he would overshadow the nominee, the first George Bush, at the convention in New Orleans. Their aides worked out a plan intended to let Reagan "give oomph to the Bush candidacy," without stealing the show, said Kenneth Duberstein, Reagan's chief of staff.[13] An unpopular president with the general public, Bush nevertheless enjoys rock solid support with much of the party base. His 30% approval rating comes from rank and file Republicans who would not look kindly on any kind of snub that the McCain campaign might believe would be necessary to generate some distance from the president.[16] LITTLE ROCK -- After less than an hour visiting a housing assistance agency, President Bush and his motorcade sped to a private home here Tuesday to make a quick appearance -- and deliver a whole lot of money -- for the Republican Party. It was his second fundraiser of the day.[17] Vote analysis after the 2000 election showed President Bush winning by 16 percentage points in rural counties nationwide. He followed up by a 19-point winning margin in 2004. In more concentrated population centers, such as St. Joseph, the Democratic Party has held a historical advantage.[15] Maintaining an edge there, and getting an even larger turnout in other traditional GOP areas, are musts for McCain to offset Democratic votes ' Democrats still hold the majority in Florida ' elsewhere, especially given that Democrats turned out in record numbers for the primaries. Hispanic voters are particularly in play this election.[9] Florida donors pumped about $14.5 million into Democratic campaigns; McCain picked up $6.1 million.[9] McCain and Obama entered June with virtually the same amount of cash available for the rest of the summer, $33 million for Obama to $31.6 million for McCain. McCain probably will feel the financial pinch this fall.[7] There are many, not the least of which is trying to become the first black president of a country where racism still runs deep. The GOP-fueled liberal elitist label also could stick on this Harvard-educated Chicagoan. And, Obama also may be undercutting his claim to be a straight-shooting, new-politics candidate as he repeatedly breaks with his liberal base on various issues to aggressively move to appeal to the center of the electorate. National polls vary widely, but they have one commonality: None show McCain ahead of Obama.[7] Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Saturday thanked the National Education Association for its endorsement but also made it clear that he continues to support merit pay for teachers. His position is a controversial one with the 3.2 million member group and it has earned him criticism when he addressed the NEA in 2007.[4] ST. LOUIS -- Barack Obama said Saturday that he was surprised at how the media has "finely calibrated" his recent words on Iraq, and denied that he intends to anything but end the war if he is elected. "I was a little puzzled by the frenzy that I set off by what I thought was a pretty innocuous statement," the expected Democratic presidential nominee told reporters flying with him to Missouri from Montana.[4] McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responded in a statement: "Improving America's schools will take bipartisan leadership and a commitment to the issue, but Barack Obama has never spearheaded education reforms while in the U.S. Senate and has no record of working across the aisle for change."[4] A month after Mr Obama sealed the Democratic nomination, his army of online supporters is showing signs of division. Bloggers have inundated the portal my.barackobama.com with protests about his shift to the centre. Within days of its creation last month, a group appealing for Mr Obama to reconsider his support for a compromise deal over controversial domestic surveillance legislation had become the most popular community on his website. The rebellion highlights the balancing act facing Mr Obama as he attempts to win over conservative-minded Democrats and independents without alienating the grassroots liberals whose enthusiasm helped propel him to the nomination. Mr Obama has taken decisive steps to the centre on several contentious issues over the past fortnight, indicating that he is prepared to test his supporters' loyalty to the limit. He signalled willingness to "refine" his plans for withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq after consulting commanders when he visits the country later this summer. Mr Obama insisted he was not backtracking from his commitment to remove all combat troops within 16 months of taking office but said there was room for flexibility in the number of troops left behind for training and anti-terrorism operations. "We need to be as careful getting out as we were careless getting in," he told reporters during a campaign stop in North Dakota.[11] On Thursday in North Dakota, Obama said that "I'll. continue to refine my policy" on Iraq after an upcoming trip there. With a promise to end the war the central premise of his candidacy, the Obama campaign has struggled over the past two days to push back against Republicans and others who say his recent statement could be a softening. In two news conferences on Thursday, Obama said any refinement of his position on Iraq wouldn't be related to his promise to remove combat forces within 16 months of taking office, but rather to the number of troops needed to train Iraqis and fight al-Qaida. He also acknowledged that the 16-month timeline could indeed slip if removing troops risked their safety or Iraqi stability. "What's important is to understand the difference between strategy and tactics," he told reporters. "The tactics of how we ensure our troops are safe as we pull out, how we execute the withdrawal, those are things that are all based on facts and conditions.[4] Getting someone who'd also help win a swing state would be "kind of a side benefit," according to David Plouffe, manager of Obama's campaign. He pointed out that Dick Cheney, whose selection as George W. Bush's running mate was widely praised at the time, comes from one of the safest Republican states in the country. By now, it's fair to say that somewhere, online or in print, the eventual running mates for both parties have already been identified, and analyzed in depth.[12] A Philadelphia radio station has refused to run the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's latest radio ad, which features a Bush impersonator praising incumbent Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach. The station's general manager said they were "concerned that our listeners would have been misled by usage of an impersonator in the creative delivery."[10] If we look at the same committee on the democratic side, we used to see Bubbuh presiding over an elitist, entitled white crust of a broken pander-party, but no more. Obama broke the legs of that machine with his own grass-roots org, and he broke its back when he beat Hillary. It is clear the GOP has no such savior on its side, and doesn't want one, though I believe its continued existence depends on it. To be perfecftly honest, Barr/Paul is their only hope.[10] Obama emerged from the party's left to topple the more centrist Hillary Rodham Clinton. Obama and McCain both won their nominations with the support of independents, moderates and crossovers from the opposite party.[3] Reed, 58, has a reputation as a serious thinker and is a respected voice on defense matters. He's a West Point graduate and Army Ranger, with views that are right in line with Obama's. He's got an attractive wife and toddler at home, which might produce the sort of family tableau that boosted the Clinton-Gore ticket (Reed met his future wife, a Senate staffer, on an official trip to Afghanistan with McCain). Like Obama, he's got a Harvard Law degree and spent time teaching at the college level (West Point).[12] For McCain, the underdog, the electoral map may dictate a more conventional running mate. That's why Mitt Romney has emerged as a consensus VP pick. He could help the ticket in many ways, including in the key state of Michigan, where he's got family ties. McCain doesn't like him. For a guy who values his buddies much more than most politicians, the idea of having Mitt right down the hall for the next four or eight years could be extremely hard for McCain to swallow.[12] "The assumption would be that there will be some kind of physical handoff," Jones said. "I think there is a sense that they would appear together. He is the sitting president; he's still popular among hard-core Republicans; McCain has some issues with hard-core Republicans. "Some people will say this was a bad way to play it, but I think it's one of those things where you have to run through it, and do it, and embrace it."[13] President Bush frustrated conservatives by growing government, failing to defend policies with clarity and choosing the "new tone" over calling out, Texas-style, domestic threats to the republic. McCain says his presidency won't be Bush's third term.[6] Last year, Mr McCain was one of the key backers of President Bush's plan for "comprehensive immigration reform", which would have created "paths to citizenship" for illegal immigrants, while investing more money in border security.[18] An alternate possibility: Rob Portman. A former congressman from Ohio--a must-win state for Republicans--he's got expertise where McCain is weak, on economics. He's been the nation's budget director and top trade negotiator. His biggest liabilities are his long and deep Bush connections (he served both the current president and his father).[12] McCain, like Bush, favors letting workers put some payroll-tax money into individual investment accounts.[14] Bush will speak at the convention on opening night, but a source said a joint appearance with McCain is "highly unlikely."[10] Handlers for Obama and McCain are trying to lower expectations and keep a lid on the process. They want to preserve the element of surprise when the announcements are made--perhaps not until late summer, just before the national conventions.[12] McCain and Obama need to court for victory, for a pragmatic, nonideological, comprehensive national energy policy. This independent voter longs for it, anyway.[19] Barack Obama has been performing a more traditional manoeuvre: running to the left during the primaries, when party activists need to be wooed, then shifting to the centre once the nomination is clinched. Flip-flopping politicians will always attract charges of hypocrisy and opportunism: it may be worth it if it helps them win over undecided voters in the middle, but when the goal is to shore up their political base, the benefits are much less clear.[18] Clinton also won the primary handily, even though neither Democrat campaigned here. What that means, several experts say, is that Obama must give Florida more of the personal touch that's inspired so many voters elsewhere, and he especially needs to bring former Clinton backers to his side.[9] Rezko, Wright, Pfleger, Ayers, Johnson - the list of cohorts who've changed into people Obama "just doesn't recognize anymore" is long. In the Illinois statehouse, he implemented scores of tax increases, restricted legal gun ownership and killed in committee the 2002 Induced Infant Liability Act granting medical attention to babies who had enough "audacity of hope" to survive their own abortions. In the U.S. Senate, he voted against banning partial-birth abortion and funding the troop surge but for the Democrats' 2009 Budget Resolution, which raised taxes on income as low as $31,850.[6] Fine. Now he needs to prove an Obama presidency would be Carter's second - or McGovern's first. He shouldn't run left, but intentionally run conservatively. When muscular conservatism is articulated, it takes the shine off all the "free stuff" Democrats promise people in exchange for their vote and their self-determination.[6] You think there are a lot of closet racists that would never vote for Obama, wait till you see the number of closet anti-mormans who refuse to vote for Romney and probably won't vote at all.[12] The overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. That Democratic edge suggests Obama may be less dependent on votes in the middle than McCain.[3] Revenue flowing into the Treasury would decline by $3.7 trillion over 10 years under McCain's plan, while Obama's would bring in $2.7 trillion less, Burman's group says.[14] Obama vows to get every American access to health insurance, at a cost of at least $65 billion a year. He would require parents to insure their children and large employers their workers, and help low-income households buy insurance.[14] I'm surprised you made it all the way through the article. Hillary ran a horrible campaign, finally recognized many of her mistakes, and now graciously endorsed Obama. [12] Obama "doesn't have a lot of good choices," insisted a top campaign aide, with a straight face. The Republican line: Our party's bench is very thin this season.[12] Based on the numbers so far, the Republican Party appears poised to act as the financial equalizer in the fall campaign.[1] Here are some examples. Having long been a member of his party's more moderate wing on a number of issues, Mr McCain began adopting more right-wing positions during the primary campaign.[18] The Arizona senator memorably described Mr Falwell and fellow members of the religious right as "agents of intolerance". In 2006, ahead of his second presidential run, Mr McCain delivered the commencement address at Mr Falwell's Liberty University, after which he attended a small private party hosted by his former political adversary. Mr McCain angered his former allies in the political centre by supporting a bill exempting the CIA from following the same rules on interrogation as the U.S. Army.[18] Graham's visibility as the Arizona senator's closest political confidant has risen in recent weeks as the two men crisscross the country and travel abroad on McCain's presidential quest.[4] Our HuffPollstrology chart helps keep you up to date on the latest poll results, along with the latest horoscope predictions, and the latest online political betting lines - and will hopefully help the polling junkies in the media keep polls in the proper perspective. Mccain vs obama in the General election mccain 43% Gallup Daily VIRGOAugust 29, 1936 It might feel as though you're finally coasting toward the finishing line in a project.[4] In a way, the pro war ad is a bit more honest than a corporate media/punditry helping lead us into the war and remaining in the tank for the war profiteers by slanting political stuff to benefit McCain. the same players are behind both the slant of the corporate media and the new ad.[10] Even EC has unwittingly assisted in that committee's endeavor. How many threads have we had that simply repeat some MSM interpretation of Obama's message and those threads are just herding commenters to engage in spirited and dutiful back and forths regarding arguable nuanced interpretations? But, always, there are the ones who take the bait and suddenly join in the new meme 'Obama isn't what he seems'. The overall phenomenon of the committee vs Obama and the way this committee is operating with the help of the MSM. gets lost in that nit-pickery.[10] As president, Obama promises to sign the Freedom of Choice Act (an abortion carte blanche introduced in 1989 but never passed), have t'te-'-t'tes with despots, appoint judicial activists and pay for new entitlements with tax increases.[6] There is still no date for the trip. German news sources are reporting the Obama team is working on a visit during the "second half of this month".[4] We didn'''t do it because we can'''t do it individually and have an appreciable effect ''' it would take a national effort, and that takes leadership. No one in a position of political leadership ''' not the president, not his fellow Republicans, and not their Democratic opposition ''' has stood up and said, Let'''s get our act together, and here'''s how. [19] There seems to be no ironclad strategy to win Florida's presidential electoral stakes: Polls are mixed, experts put the state in the tossup category and even Republican Gov. Charlie Crist ' mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick and popular even with Democrats ' says it's going to be a close race.[9] '''With the people that came from other countries, there was a perceived idea that the Republicans were the party of the affluent and the Democrats were the party of the working man,''' said Bob Slater of St. Joseph, a longtime observer of local politics.[15] Some 39 percent of voters called themselves Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 32 percent independent in the June 13-23 survey, part of an ongoing study tracking opinions of the same group of people over the election cycle.[3] The Democratic presidential primary left conservatives sympathetic for Hillary Clinton - who found out what it's like when the press pulls for the other fellow and you find yourself on the wrong side of George Soros' vast left-wing conspiracy.[6] The national conventions and the presidential debates are upcoming. Conservative evangelical leaders skeptical of McCain are now coalescing around him.[7] 'The secular, fiscal conservative, strong on defense, is the order of the day,' Stipanovich said. Along with that, he said, the campaign must let McCain be McCain. 'They can't over-manage him,' Stipanovich said. 'He has that maverick streak, a lot of candor, a playful, sometimes high-risk sense of humor. They can't be too cautious.[9] Senator John McCain was performing relatively smoothly as he unveiled his energy plan. He managed to limit the mechanical hand chops and weirdly timed smiles that can often punctuate his speeches. He delivered his lines with an ease that suggested a momentary peace with his longtime nemesis, the teleprompter. (He relied on a belt-and-suspenders approach, with text scrolling down screens to his left and right, and on a big TV set in front of him.)[4] McCain's ground-game operation has been slow-moving; staffers weren't dispatched in earnest to key states until last month — even though the GOP primary ended in March.[7] Turning out the black vote in high numbers is also essential, says Brad Coker, a pollster with the independent Mason-Dixon research organization. Black voters make up about 14 percent of the state's registered voters, but their turnout in most elections has been substantially lower, he said.[9] An inspired choice would generate a "wow factor" for the campaign. That would advance the political goals: energizing supporters, making voters take a fresh look at the nominee and, if necessary, changing the dynamic of the election.[12] Polls have come to dominate the media's horse race coverage of political campaigns. Pundits and reporters constantly use them to tell us who's hot and who's not -- but skip over the fact that plummeting response rates and variables like undecided voters and margins of error and often render these polls useless as anything other than lightweight diversions on par with horoscopes and political betting lines.[4] "He's still the commander in chief, with the top political job in the country." Bush's fundraising prowess is not without its limits, in large part because of his stubbornly low approval ratings. All but four of his fundraising events this year have been held behind closed doors or behind the tall fences and manicured gardens of wealthy homes, such as the ones in Jackson and Little Rock. [17] One Democrat drawing attention lately as a Gore-like VP pick is Gore himself. The case for Gore goes something like this: He's become an outsider but still knows how Washington works. He's got impeccable credentials on global issues, from climate change to national defense. That argument, however, overlooks the fact that, having done the job for eight years, he's extremely unlikely to want it again.[12] Then after two deliveries the meals stopped because gas prices had made the delivery too expensive. Sandra Prediger, who has a home health aide twice a week, has health problems that require her to drive to distant hospitals from her home in South Haven, Mich. Costly gas may force cutbacks. "They called and said I was outside of the delivery area," said Mrs. Fair, who is homebound and has not been able to use her left arm since a stroke in 1997. Faced with soaring gasoline prices, agencies around the country that provide services to the elderly say they are having to cut back on programs like Meals on Wheels, transportation assistance and home care, especially in rural areas that depend on volunteers who provide their own gas. In a recent survey by the National Association of Area Agencies on Aging, more than half said they had already cut back on programs because of gas costs, and 90 percent said they expected to make cuts in the 2009 fiscal year.[4] Obama crawled from the primordial soup of Chicago politics as a "community organizer," whatever that is. Maybe he was the fellow who told newcomers what day to put out the recycling. Friends in low places helped him make political headway. [6] "An unpopular president with the general public, Bush nevertheless enjoys rock solid support with much of the party base. Oh, please! George Bush represents the past. 7 months from now, he'll be just a private citizen.[16] Republicans should talk about the USA's future. The number of people that will determine their vote based on the convention schedules/lineups has to be very close to zero. Appears to me to be a tempest in a teapot for both parties.[16] "The frustration is there's no big theme around which to build a winning campaign," said Steve Lombardo, a Republican pollster. "They need a big strategic message that will show the differences between the two campaigns, and allow for a win."[7] REFERENCES 1. Wake up America: Since The Start Of 2007, President Bush Has Raised More Campaign Money Than The Entire Democratic National Committee 2. Bush-McCain unlikely to appear together at GOP convention - On Politics - USATODAY.com 3. The 'mushy middle' hard to reach for Obama, McCain 4. From The Wire | AlterNet 5. Candidates and their surrogates should take the high road -- editorial- cleveland.com 6. OnlineAthens.com | Opinion | Daniel: McCain can't take conservatives for granted 07/06/08 7. The Associated Press: Analysis: McCain struggles to regain footing 8. Martin Luther King's dream or ole time America? - JAMAICAOBSERVER.COM 9. Florida's up for grabs in presidential race's final stage | news-press.com | The News-Press 10. TPM Election Central | Talking Points Memo | Election Central Saturday Roundup 11. Is Obama's determination making or breaking him ? - Panafrica - Politics - United States - Africa 12. The Swamp: VP picks: Gore, or somebody like him 13. GOP's conundrum: Bush's role at convention / 'Delicate situation' as McCain seeks to be his own man 14. Candidates mine ideas of predecessors - 07/05/2008 - MiamiHerald.com 15. stjoenews.net | Rural voters lean to the GOP 16. American Thinker Blog: Both Parties Struggling with Convention Lineup 17. Bush still raising millions for the GOP | Politics | Star-Telegram.com 18. BBC NEWS | Americas | US candidates practise their U-turns 19. Brad Warthen's Blog: Neither Obama nor McCain meets Energy Party standard McCain Campaign, in Relaunch, Seeks Tighter Message FocusCONTENTS:
The goal is to put out a consistent message each day that can penetrate voters' minds. The ability to control a certain story line through a 24-hour news cycle is seen as one element of a successful modern political campaign and, so far, Sen. Obama has been seen as better at sticking to his chosen theme for a day than has Sen. McCain. The Illinois senator did seem to stumble Thursday, however, with comments suggesting he was moving away from his promise to pull troops out of Iraq -- forcing him to hold a second news conference after a rare admission from the candidate that "I was not clear enough." The McCain makeover involves a complex task: How to control a politician best known for ask-anything town-hall meetings and long, rambling conversations with reporters on his campaign bus -- and, now, on his campaign plane, dubbed the Straight Talk Express. A top adviser says they considered cutting back on those formats but concluded they couldn't. "It's John McCain, it's his brand," strategist Charlie Black said. "The fact he is engaging with average citizens and with reporters is part of his brand." The campaign will try to find ways to better manage what comes out of these sessions. Aides say they will push Sen. McCain for tighter delivery and to contain diversions -- if not completely eliminate them. [1] Take Sen. McCain's decision last month to reverse course and support offshore oil drilling. On a Monday, he scheduled a last-minute news conference to say that he would make this announcement the next day -- effectively scooping himself. A campaign adviser said they announced the news early because the senator had no other public events that day and, therefore, no other message to drive. Tuesday, he reannounced his proposal in front of an audience of oil executives in Texas, a negative association for someone trying to paint himself as an environmentalist. That same day, President Bush came out in favor of a nearly identical policy -- a coordinated move that seemed odd for a candidate trying to distance himself from the unpopular president. Less than a week later, Sen. McCain continued his pitch in Santa Barbara, Calif., the site of a massive oil spill in 1969. The senator was pressed on his stance at both a fund-raiser and a roundtable discussion.[1] There have been complaints within the GOP that McCain's campaign lacks focus and a coherent message. Schmidt says in a memo to regional campaign managers that the goal is to increase the capacity to "reach out to voters, build coalitions, identify supporters," and ultimately get them to the polls. McCain made his comments in Mexico, where he met Thursday with President Felipe Calderon to discuss trade and immigration issues. [2] Schmidt will report to Rick Davis, who will keep the title of campaign manager but focus on longer term matters like the Republican National Convention and McCain's choice of a running mate.[3] Behind the scenes, the campaign is centralizing power. In his new role running day-to-day campaign operations, Steve Schmidt, who formerly served as a senior adviser and who had worked for the Bush-Cheney re-election effort in 2004 and ran California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's re-election campaign, is taking over responsibilities that once fell to campaign manager Rick Davis. Mr. Davis, a former lobbyist, will retain his title. Rather than the daily messaging, he will oversee longer-term projects such as the party's September convention and the fall debates.[1] MEXICO CITY (AP) - John McCain is downplaying a shake-up in his campaign's leadership. He says putting top adviser Steve Schmidt in near full control is part of a "natural evolution" as the campaign becomes more national.[2] John McCain will spend the coming week talking about the economy, but the Republican presidential candidate isn't expected to say anything new. He will repackage proposals he has already outlined -- ones the campaign fears nobody heard.[1] The staff changes -- coming after Republican complaints that the Arizona senator's campaign lacked focus and a coherent message -- threatened to overshadow McCain's trip through Latin America and his effort to present himself as a statesman experienced in foreign affairs.[3] The campaign said it recognizes that most questions cover familiar territory, so the candidate's answers aren't likely to make news that will upstage the message of the day.[1] Mr. Davis had created a system of regional campaign managers, delegating considerable authority to people on the ground in each of 11 regions. The idea was to delegate decision making to those closer to the targeted voters, but the campaign concluded more centralized decision-making was needed.[1] One senior adviser said the message will be executed "crisply" from now on. Until recently, Sen. McCain began town halls with his standard stump speech that touched briefly on a variety of issues, from immigration to the economy. [1] REFERENCES 1. McCain Campaign, in Relaunch, Seeks Tighter Message Focus - WSJ.com 2. WHNT-TV, Huntsville, AL: McCain says campaign changes a "natural evolution" 3. McCain: Staff shake-up part of 'natural evolution' - USATODAY.com A question of McCain's experienceCONTENTS:
You know, there's a whole record of Obama surrogates who have been questioning and attacking John McCain's credentials as a war hero. I think they're very -- I think the Obama campaign is very much worried about this being something that will, when they get to know -- when people who don't follow politics, when they realize that he is a war hero, that this is gonna get the undecided vote to his favor. I think they're trying -- there's a really conscious effort to downgrade him as a war hero. So when you find five, six, seven surrogates, all questioning McCain's war record -- this isn't an accident. This is -- I am sure this is some talking points that were put out secretly in the Obama campaign. NOVAK: But Wesley Clark being such a clumsy, ham-handed person, he just went too far. He was too nasty. He didn't do it in some obscure place. He did it on a national television talk show on Sunday, and he just went too far. He might have really inhibited the Obama campaign from carrying on this technique. SMERCONISH: But where would the substance be to go after John McCain on his war record? It's not as if you have, as we saw four years ago, individuals who served with him now coming forward and saying history recorded this in an inaccurate fashion. NOVAK: Well, it's a -- it's part of politics. [1] The smears didn't stop there. Obama foreign policy adviser Rand Beers unfavorably compared McCain's POW experience with "the members of the Senate who were in the ground forces or who were ashore in Vietnam," and who "have a very different view of Vietnam and the cost. than John McCain does because he was in isolation essentially for many of those years and did not experience the turmoil here or the challenges that were involved for those of us who served in Vietnam during the Vietnam War." It's curious how anyone could argue that a man with such visceral understanding of the capacity for what America's enemies will do to our men and women in uniform doesn't fully appreciate the cost of war. Even more troubling is the unmistakable pattern of these smears, all of them unsubtly alleging that McCain is an unhinged, mentally unstable warmonger who would deploy soldiers capriciously because he hasn't truly experienced the horrors of ground battle. The claims of these four men -- and the short period of time in which they were all uttered -- are so similar in tone that one would be foolish not to at least consider the possibility they were coordinated by the Obama campaign. The fears of Obama supporters that their candidate lies eternally vulnerable to GOP smears exists only in their fevered imaginations. The evidence of dirty Republican tricks has been utterly absent this campaign season.[2] Navy men, of whom McCain is one, who eat well in clean surroundings are particularly scorned. What Clark missed is that McCain wouldn't be the first man forced to ditch his airplane during combat to rise to the presidency. George H.W. Bush had the same experience in World War II. Fortunately, he wasn't picked up by the enemy and brutally incarcerated. That episode was one of the things that made him attractive to voters who elected him as the last of the "good war" presidents. Those military years clearly served him well in managing Operation Desert Storm where he resisted an extension of the conflict that would have damaged a fragile alliance in the region and forced a debilitating occupation of Iraq. Obama's quick denouncement of the general's statement is to his credit. At the same time he has been forced unfairly to defend his own patriotism in a campaign marred before it has officially begun with charges and counter charges that are exacerbated by the excesses of the Internet where misinformation and unsubstantiated rumors and just plain made up stuff have become an increasing threat to any semblance of political decency. Obama is especially vulnerable because of his mixed race, his Muslim sounding middle name, Hussein, and his failure early on to wear an American flag in his lapel.[3] There's a few things I could add to that list. The sad thing is that those three things and and the things I could add to the list are all things that McCain has conspicuously reversed his position on as soon as it became politically expedient. Or, rather, my sense is that his own internal moral sense is peculiarly erratic, prone to his experience of recent events and shallowly considered rationalization. I personally don't think he's cynical, I think he really doesn't believe very strongly many of the things he claims to believe strongly. He believes he believes these things strongly. He also thinks he's a pragmatist, mostly as a result of the fact that he doesn't really believe that many things strongly and so finds himself changing his mind fairly regularly. He thinks it's evolved judgments, it's actually just where he finds himself blown today. From my perspective, this makes him look like a potentially bad President. He goes by his gut, like Bush, but his gut isn't reliably the same from one day to the next. Especially if enough people around him convince him that his gut made him make a politically unpopular decision. You really should read what he said about evangelical Christian political leaders, particularly in North Carolina, in the book he wrote after his fight with Bush in 2000. He was amazingly candid and angry and just plain hateful. (With good reason.) At the time, reading what he wrote, I told people that he must have decided that he never would campaign for President again, as Christian conservatives would never, ever forgive him and a good portion of American wouldn't trust him, either, if they read what he wrote (as they certainly would, I thought, were he to campaign again).[4] Yet. here we are. If it's true, and it surely is, that the larger part of Obama's support comes from people who know little about him other than their favorable impression of him from television, it's also at least as true about McCain. Because if people did know him, they wouldn't like him. His support is tepid among the GOP faithful because they do, in fact, know him pretty well. They don't trust him. That's why he's likely to lose this race. They have good reason to mistrust him. He can't be trusted. He's a man who was tortured in war captivity, who bravely fought his own party when they tried to rationalize all kinds of torture, and who now claims to support the very same things he opposed as torture only months ago (he wasn't ambiguous on the wrongness of waterboarding eightteen months ago). If he can compromise on that, after all he's been through, he can compromise on anything. It's the argument that the right used against Clinton, also with good reason. Obama has less experience in many ways, but he gives many more indications of being a better President. When conservatives label liberals as elites, they do so from the perspective of cultural attitudes not wealth per se.[4] When it comes to body language, Obama has an advantage, said Ginny Pulos, a New York media consultant and expert on the subject. McCain has improved dramatically with experience, she said, losing some of the rigidity and a phony-looking grin that detracted from his presentations in prior years. "He has obviously had some coaching. He's come a long way," Pulos said. McCain seems more at ease than in the past, but still sends off signals that can subconsciously lead voters to question his sincerity, she said. "He often has his hands closed tightly like he's being a good boy in school. This shows he is trying to control the situation by bottling up his energy," Pulos said. "He seems to be constantly trying to edit his words before he speaks, and he often looks to the side rather than directly at people, which conveys that he is searching for the right words rather than speaking naturally," she added.[5] Happens reasonably. To say, "Oh, we thought he was different," ignores the reality that he is different, even if not different in every way. It also ignores that, like with our friends, the good things one likes about him far outweigh what makes us gnash our teeth. Significantly, it ignores that as progressive as Barack Obama is -- he also came to national attention by drawing people together in the center, that we are not Red States or Blue States, but the United States. That's as much a part of who he is and has always been, not a flip or flop in sight. Perspective is important: it's one thing to soften one's views, and another to reverse them completely, as John McCain keeps doing, whether being against offshore drilling and then supporting it. Or against oppressive immigration policies and then for them. Or saying we'll be greeted as liberators in Iraq and later insisting he was always critical of how the war was run. Even on those positions of Barack Obama's that I flat-out don't agree with? I'm OK with it. That's life.[6] UP: Obama says he'll rebrand and expand Bush's faith-based initiative; lays out an ambitious national service plan; and gives a big speech reaffirming his patriotism. It adds up to an all-American triple play for moderate voters. DOWN: Wes Clark, ex- NATO commander, says John McCain's record as a war hero and Navy commander isn't relevant to his being President. Having to disavow those remarks knocks Obama, fighter pilot of new politics, down to earth. DOWN: News breaks that Obama got a discount rate on his $1.3 million home mortgage. There is no evidence this was unsavory - as other senators' loans from Countrywide seemed to be - but the headline alone is a headache.[7] In any case, Obama can use a change in the story line right now. His switch on the FISA vote from opposition to support was a real disappointment to many of his most devoted supporters. His initial reaction to the Wes Clark dustup with John McCain, rejecting Clark'''s comments, seemed wimpy to many Democrats. There is a worry in the party that he may be '''playing not to lose''' with excessive caution rather than '''playing to win''' and being more aggressive. On the domestic side, though, Obama'''s travels to red states are perking up Democrats, especially in those states. He visited North Dakota and Montana, buoyed by a poll in the latter red state showing him leading McCain. McCain is visiting states to raise money (New York, California, etc) but not places where he is likely to win.[8] Good points, but can you picture John McCain at a country club with a beautiful date, holding a martini and a cigarette and standing against the wall making snide comments about everyone who passes by? I sure can't. He seems more like a cigar guy. Obama can't really say anything with respect to Cindy McCain's money because he too is vulnerable on spouse-related issues.[4] This fall's presidential election likely will hinge on pressing national issues such as war and the economy, but in a race that could be close, there are still voters who will focus on the candidates' personal characteristics, from their styles to their smiles. In Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, they have a choice between a pair of polished candidates whose personal styles are reflections of their more substantive selves.[5] The conventional wisdom these days is that General Wesley Clark's raising questions about John McCain's fitness to be commander in chief causes political problems for Barack Obama. That's considered to be especially important now that Obama is seen as moving to the center for the general election, and in the last few weeks emphasized such heartland-friendly themes as patriotism and faith.[9] Withstanding more than five years as a prisoner of war is another matter. It's a horror most people can't even imagine, and however he got there, he deserves his country's respect. He is a war hero, and that's a powerful image for voters. General Wesley Clark is a war hero too, with a Silver Star for valor in Vietnam among the many honors he has received over a long military career. That's why it is puzzling that he would allow himself to get drawn into a no-win controversy over McCain's military service, putting Barack Obama in the crossfire instead of simply shaking off the comment, saying that's not what he meant. Here's what happened: Clark was a guest on Sunday's Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer, who was grilling him about Obama's experience to be commander in chief, noting that unlike McCain, Obama has not "ridden in a fighter plane and gotten shot down."[10] Sure, the onetime presidential candidate was playing politics. Was he denigrating McCain's service, as the candidate's handlers and war buddies would insist for three days running? Hardly. Only a couple of wing-nuts have twisted McCain's remarkable prison odyssey -- which included his willingness to endure torture rather than accept early release -- into anything negative. McCain's military service -- including his time at the Navy War College, his later command of a Navy squadron and his long history with military affairs in the Senate -- cannot and should not be off limits any more than Obama's lack of similar experience.[11] While visiting a state, a candidate can make speeches, run ad campaigns, raise money, hire political operatives or court key endorsements. How much activity a candidate may conduct in one turn is dictated by his or her stamina factor, one of seven ratings assigned by the game. My virtual Obama, for example, had a third more stamina than did the McCain character and also bested him in charisma. McCain, on the other hand, has a much higher experience rating than Obama (thanks to his two decades in the Senate) and rates slightly higher on credibility.[12] A Republican Party fund charged with electing governors has started positioning itself as a base for contributions regardless of size. This is only one of the endeavors designed to assist the senator. A second strategy enacted by the McCain campaign, as reported by the Wall Street Journals''' Elizabeth Holmes in April, establishes a joint fund-raising account that pools the legal maximum gifts for the candidate in addition to the national party, and state parties with contests crucial to the outcome of the race. While Obama's flip-flop on saying, then recanting, that he's aggressively pursuing an agreement with McCain on accepting public financing may be glaring, it can be argued that Obama's switch shouldn'''t give McCain a free pass. His supporters may be staying true to the language of his legislation, but they'''re not being true to its intent.[13] The McCain people are being out-spent and out-organized. They are out-messaging Obama. Obama'''s team is unaccountably on the defensive, looking to fight back against charges instead of pressing their advantage. Republicans are jumping on every Obama mistake, and even creating ones that don'''t exist (such as the mythical special deal Obama did not actually receive on his home loan). The Obama people are spending precious little time making McCain pay for his mistakes or inconsistencies. If they'''re not careful, they will find themselves in the position of all candidates who try to run out the clock and to rely on organization and money instead of message.[8] Obama is McSame and McSame is Obama! Obama is old politics with a new coat of paint! There is nothing new. The biggest difference I see.is Obama is a bigger lair than McCain. he lied from the beginning AND took all your money. He has enough campaign funds to provide a stimulous package and could have if he had kept his word about the campaign financing, but no 295 million plus wasn't enough. That's a quarter of a billion dollars !!!! And didn't even consider giving one cent to a poor, hungry downtrodden homeless person. you know those people he wants to help. That's the saddest thing of all.[14] Far, no one with any serious affiliation to John McCain's campaign has resorted to the alleged "scare" tactics in which Republicans -- and, apparently, only Republicans -- have been perfecting since Richard Nixon was first elected. If the past few months have showed us anything, it's that the Obama campaign is the one dealing in crude smears. There have been only two incidents in which people officially associated with McCain have done anything approaching what Thomas and Wolfe predicted those dastardly, conniving Republicans would inevitably do.[2] Happy Independence Day, John McCain! I hope you get this message down in Mexico. Senator McCain has been traveling for the last few days, and upon his return north, to the United States, he will find that his campaign is still headed south. Judging by the polls, the more people see of John McCain, the less they like him. The problem for McCain is simple: he has a reputation as a maverick, and a straight-shooter, but almost all of his appearances prove that he is neither of those; instead, he proves to be all over the map on the most important issues of the day, and he frequently shows a real lack of understanding regarding the issues. It's reminiscent of what happens when a Hollywood actor or a famous athlete lets you into their lives and thus loses their hard-earned mystique. You find out you liked them just fine before you knew a lot about them.[15] I am reminded of the old story about a pair of feuding hillbillies, in the distant days when the American South was the Solid South for the Democratic party. For reasons they probably couldn't even remember, their two families had a bitter, generations-long feud, like the Hatfields and the McCoys. One man has received the Democratic nomination to run for county sheriff, and walks up to his old antagonist's house to tell him, "I don't want you nor none of your no-good kinfolk voting for me." His outraged enemy spits on the ground and replies, "Oh yeah? Well, I hate your guts, but no power on earth is gonna stop me and my kinfolk from voting the straight Democratic ticket." Modern political parties wish they could engender that brand of voter loyalty. Sen. McCain has made national security the No. 1 issue of his campaign. Last week one of his top advisors, Charlie Black, said another terrorist attack on United States soil would give the McCain campaign a big advantage, and then had to spend days backtracking and apologizing.[16] With no strong third-party candidate on the horizon in 2008, chances are the winner will need a majority of the vote. While most national polls show Obama with a modest lead over McCain, few have shown him winning a majority. These are the dog days of the campaign.[17] Consider, first, the lack of head-to-head discussion. People would love to see the two candidates, Sens. Barrack Obama and John McCain, stand on a stage and discuss their ideas and platforms. It would be enlightening, and allow voters to get a better picture of each contender. McCain has formally proposed holding just such discussions, which used to be called debates. '''We need to now sit down and work out a way that we can have these town hall meetings and have a great debate,''' he told reporters last month. It'''s an idea Obama had seemed eager to embrace while he was seeking the Democratic nomination.[18] Wah, wah, wah, people are making "slanted" comments about your preferred candidates. You need to learn to deal with the fact that people don't like your guy, and if you guys are going to claim Obama's an "elitist" and bad-mouth his wife, Obama's supporters are going to come right back at the McCains with both barrels, and they're much more vulnerable.[4] McCain's policy would foster market innovation and competition and put more choices in the hands of individuals. Both candidates regard universal coverage as a top priority, but they differ strikingly in how they propose to get there. Obama's approach is to mandate that all children be insured and that employers "pay or play" by either providing health insurance to their employees or contributing toward the cost of a public plan. This new plan would be subsidized and would look very much like the current Medicare program. Obama proposes to create a "National Health Insurance Exchange" to sell this new insurance to small businesses and currently uninsured individuals.[19] Obama's top-down approach would achieve universal coverage quicker than McCain's bottom-up plan, but would involve more government intervention. Another issue on which the candidates' proposals can be judged is cost control. A selling point of Obama's approach is its insistence on a generous comprehensive benefits package for all Americans that would be similar to coverage now available to federal employees. This feature, when coupled with the desire to make insurance "portable" and universally available to all, would in all likelihood add a financial burden to the federal budget at a time when the economy is slowing and government revenues are drying up.[19] Any proposed change to the current payment policies will create opposition and controversies among winners and losers. We still know little about what new payment methods really work nationally in improving both the fairness to providers and the efficiency with which care is delivered. Another critical issue on which both candidates are mostly silent is the question of how to deliver health care more efficiently. Plenty of evidence has emerged from recent research that many Americans receive too much care that could be unnecessary, partly because the abundance of medical specialists in many communities tends to create its own demand. Both Obama and McCain would encourage the use of advances in health care technology -- a bright spot in the otherwise gloomy field of health system change.[19] ". and I'm certainly entitled to my opinion and I really believe that Senator McCain will make a better president than Senator Obama." Well, sure, there's no way to know the truth of the matter, it's opinion for everyone about which would make the better President. and everyone is "entitled" to an opinion when the truth isn't available. You're saying this as if it were a valid response to something someone had said that wasn't merely that you were wrong about McCain being a better President (which no one actually said). That someone disagreeing with you that the comments in this thread have been "slanted" toward Obama.[4] Reporters may not have been thrilled with that story. Could they really lay off it when a would-be president and his staff talked about it for three days on end? The McCain camp has, by no means, cornered the misplaced-indignation market. It was less than two weeks ago that Obama's people got all in a lather when McCain advisor Charlie Black was quoted in Fortune magazine saying another terrorist attack on U.S. soil would be a "big advantage" to the Arizona senator.[11] If you are going to be a fucking moron, at least have the common sense to edit your posts so you aren't granting the presidency to people you hate. Trust me, this isn't a good game for you Mixner, it requires a modicum of intelligence. Elitism that people reject is more of the classism they see from some elites than a function of wealth or even now-opulent lifestyles. It is the people that had their butts schmootched and told they were special starting in childhood, that mainly through the beneficence of others, and special privilege or affirmative action bonus points grows up haughty, arrogant, having supreme self-esteem, and showing a level of contempt for those in different groups "safe by present PC rules" to scorn. They come from less self-success than being mentored and given plum spots by other ELites. McCain is no elitist, though he married into wealth. The 1st 40 years of his life were in a military meritocracy, on carriers and in the Hanoi Hilton living with another guy in a space smaller than Michelle Obama's walk-in shoe closet. No one seems to know about his wife Cindy.[4] Bill O'Reilly, Rush Limbaugh, and James Dobson are also political elites. The problem, the charge, cannot really just be that he's an elite because then many of the people making the charge would be indicting themselves as well. Let's turn to elitism or elitist in its political reference. This generally refers not to the place a person occupies in a political hierarchy but towards that person's attitudes concerning power relations within it. An elitist, as in the some subscribers to elite theory, make the normative case that elites not only rule, but they should rule. Regular people don't have the inclination or time or perhaps even brains to grasp the issues at hand so we should cede control to those who do. Now, does Senator Obama fit that definition? I think there are two pieces of evidence that suggest he does not, or that if he does it's of a very weak kind that likely entraps many of his political contemporaries (including Republicans). What was his job before the Senate? Community organizer. What do community organizers do (especially in the Saul Alinsky school)? They organize non-elites so that these non-elites can realize a greater amount of political efficacy, often times against the wishes of the political elite.[4] You can be rich, like a lotto winner, and not be considered an elite member of society who gets invited to award dinners, charity balls, and board positions on foundations. A university professor is considered a "elite" of society, not because he necessarily has a lot of dough, if fact he probably doesn't, but because his position allows him to mingle with other elites and shape politics and policy. This is all well and good, but this isn't what is at issue. The charge against Obama is not that he is an elite, but that he is an elitist. The problem we're seeing is that these two concepts are being conflated.[4] "The verbal style of John McCain is very straightforward; what you see is what you get. He speaks in short sentences and in very realistic terminology. This realistic style goes well with the kinds of serious issues he discusses. It conveys that he knows the world as it is and he is going to give it to us," Bostdorff said. "Obama has a style that is more transitional," she said. "He's not just going to tell us what the facts are, but he goes beyond that to talk about higher principles. He describes the world as it is and then goes on to describe how it could be."[5] Matt needs to stop insulting John McCain's service record. I'm having trouble finding the post where you heaped this same scorn on John Kerry (who deserves bonus points because his wealthy heiress became so by fucking a wealthy republican). Seriously, though, this issue seems to be like military experience. It's only something that bothers you if it applies to the other guy. OK, I'm not really trying to pick a fight with this one, but i have to ask.[4] I know that. I don't want to hog the call, but it's an issue that I've given a lot of thought to. You know, in the national security business, the question is, do you have -- when you've served in uniform -- do you really have the relevant experience for making the decisions at the top that have to be made? Everybody admires John McCain's service as a fighter pilot, his courage as a prisoner of war.[2] Contrast the absence of smears from the McCain camp with some of the outlandish remarks made by high-ranking Obama supporters. In April, West Virginia Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV said that because McCain "was a fighter pilot, who dropped laser-guided missiles from 35,000 feet," and "was long gone when they hit," the Arizona senator who spent five and a half years in a Vietcong tiger cage having his arms repeatedly broken didn't really understand the carnage of war.[2] "There isn't much outstanding on either side. They basically both wear conservative dark suits, usually a banker's gray or navy," Greenfield said recently from his Brooklyn factory. McCain, he said, has learned over the years to dress for campaign success: "His shirts used to look always tight around the collar. Evidently, somebody has dressed him, and he now wears a nice-fitting shirt and tie," he said. During his early years in the House and Senate, Greenfield said, McCain dressed like a congressman, sometimes wearing ill-fitted, rumpled suits. Now he dresses in more presidential styles that are crisp and suitable for his age. Obama, Greenfield said, wears suits that fit his athletic physique perfectly, but are still conservative. Sticking to conservative suits, he said, is a strategically adept move for a candidate who wants to appear youthful, but still moderate and grounded.[5] The commercial in question, 'Accountable', ends with McCain shaking hands with someone apparently wearing the logo of rival Barack Obama's campaign. If the appearance of the Obama logo is a mistake, it's a fortuitous one. Each point emphasizes the candidate's centrist appeal, and the closing handshake with the African-American woman suggests McCain is trying to seal the deal with cross-over voterseven those leaning towards Obama.[20] Not once. I've not seen one speech, and am not influenced in favoring Obama because of his apparently skillful rhetoric. Because of the 'net, I've learned a great deal about McCain's record, how he's actually voted, and especially all the different things he's said and the positions he's taken. You know what? He's neither than much of a maverick nor a straight-talker motivated by an enduring inner sense of right-and-wrong. He's a mostly garden variety conservative who has clashed with the GOP establishment on only a very few things, notably: campaign finance reform, the conservative Christian political establishment, and torture.[4] Where McCain is hurting Obama is in the daily back-and-forth of the campaign. This is turning out to be one of Obama'''s weaknesses, and McCain'''s strength. The years that McCain invested in winning the favor of political reporters (the barbeques, the intimate chats on the bus, the cultivation of their friendship) has paid off handsomely.[8] DOWN: With violence down and reconciliation underway in Iraq, Obama's stuck with an old withdrawal plan. "Start leaving we must," he says, Yoda-like. At some point, recognize reality, he must - and take more flip-flop flak, he will. UP: McCain gets the chance, thanks to comments by Wes Clark minimizing his military service, to spend a week in a political easy chair - repeating the story of his heroism and acting deeply disappointed by Democratic attacks. DOWN: Bush made big gains among Latino voters, winning 40% of them in 2004. If McCain can't keep that up, he's tostones. Right now, despite his Arizona roots and his courage on immigration, he's pulling south of 30% support.[7] Perhaps the lone voice of something roughly recognizable as reason here belonged to Fred Kaplan of the online magazine Slate. He put Clark's comments in the context of the hostility that the Vietnam-era U.S. ground soldiers down in the jungle mud - such as Clark - had for the high-in-the-sky glamour-puss flyboys soaring over them - such as McCain. This animus is real and ongoing; even today, it is the cause of numerous teeth, both real and false, regularly being deposited on the floor of the watering holes that rely on Vietnam veterans as patrons. Is the operating principle here that McCain, representing the service of America's Vietnam veterans, cannot be challenged, or even questioned? When his turn came to enter the ring as part of the Fox News anti-Clark tag team, former George W Bush chief political strategist and current Fox News contributor Karl Rove opined that "this was an outrageous comment by General Clark, who knows better than this. Shame on him, this smear, this libel. This was beyond the pale." Rove's comments must carry particular gravitas in this manner, for, if there's one person in America who knows what an outrageous smear and libel of McCain is, it's Rove. In early February of the year 2000, it was looking pretty grim for the young dauphin George W Bush trying to reclaim his father's stolen throne.[21] Jeb Bush. He met with McCain in Mexico this week. The Bush family are "royalty" in their own minds. How would the country survive without a Bush in office??? More importantly, how would the oil revenues to their bank accounts survive? Just a few years ago, there was Poppy wearing his "41" baseball cap, Junior wearing his "43" and Jeb's son wearing "46" ( think it was 46) Anyway, the family has plans, and Jebby is not going to take a back seat anymore. I will not be shocked if this is what happens, out with McCain, in with Jeb. I couldn't imagine a better way to doom his campaign. Put another Bush on the ticket and McCain might as save the expense of the convention and just give a concession speech from one of his 7 homes, preferably one not being repossessed by the state tax auditor.[15] Anyway, you seem like a nice person and are well-intentioned. I'll mention to you that prior to this election, I had thought well of McCain and would have thought he'd make just about as good a President as any Republican could make, and certainly better than many Democrats I can think of. What I knew about McCain was exclusively what I had learned from his general media exposure in past years along with the little amount I paid attention to the GOP primary races that he's run in. That amounted to 80% my impression that he was a straight-shooting maverick that went with his apparently trustworthy instincts about right-and-wrong (which, admittedly, was itself about 80% media-coverage and pundit driven) and his bucking of the Christian conservative political establishment. In this cycle, I've learned much more about him, as well as (crucially) following this election cycle entirely from the printed word (mostly on the 'net). I've never watched either of these candidates on television in the last two years, ever.[4] In a slow week like this, you would think stories like John McCain not paying his property taxes for four years would get some bite, but the news stations are so protective of their favorite nominee that you'll never see any negative reporting of John McCain.[11] On the Free Republic website, poster "boblonsberry" opined that "Wesley Clark isn't worthy to wipe up the blood in John McCain's cell. Yet this ambitious little Obama lackey has so whored himself to a shot at the vice presidency that he's willing to mock another warrior's service.[21] Obama DEFINITELY still has the moral high ground here. John McCain clearly makes his own rules -- the rules you and I need to live by don't apply to him. To us common folks, the ones who don't have spouses that can run up $750,000 in AMEX charges in a given month, we might consider it total hypocrisy when John McCain getsin bed with the Swift Boat character assassins he condemned in 2004. You can criticize Obama, and he doesn't personalize it.[9] Polls show no obvious movement of voters based on Obama's repositioning. Independent pollster John Zogby sees a particular risk among young voters, who have turned out and volunteered in droves for Obama and may be disillusioned by his display of old-style politics. Though, this election will be fought and won in the middle, says Mr. Zogby. "So both Obama and McCain are going to be in the middle." For Obama, how he gets there could be key to whether he keeps the faith with his supporters.[17] Kirchick's assertion that " here have been only two incidents in which people officially associated with McCain" have engaged in "smear-worthy" attacks on Obama is false. While Kirchick noted that a McCain campaign aide reportedly distributed a video smearing Obama, he did not note that the McCain campaign also reportedly circulated to reporters an op-ed, in which NewsMax.com chief Washington correspondent Ronald Kessler wrote that "Obama's close association with Mr. Wright. raises legitimate questions about Mr. Obama's fundamental beliefs about his country," which "deserve a clearer answer than Mr. Obama has provided so far."[2] To quote this blog: "While Obama's flip-flop on saying, then recanting, that he's aggressively pursuing an agreement with McCain on accepting public financing may be glaring, it can be argued that Obama's switch shouldn'''t give McCain a free pass. His supporters may be staying true to the language of his legislation, but they'''re not being true to its intent." Uh, what about McCain's multiple flip flops on public financing? He was going to take it for the primary, then he rejected it, then he kept his options open so he could use tax dollars to pay off a campaign loan if his campaign went south.[13] The McCain campaign, though floundering and in the midst of a shakeup, smelled blood. Spokespeople condemned Obama for saying one thing while allowing surrogates to run a smear campaign, and McCain weighed in to demand Obama "cut him loose."[10] McCain quickly distanced himself from the remark. The Obama campaign reacted by calling it "a complete disgrace," and said this was exactly the kind of politics that needs to change.[16] McCain immediately condemned the statement, leading the embittered and embarrassed professional yacker to complain that McCain "threw me under the bus." The only other smear-worthy episode occurred in March, when the McCain campaign suspended a low-level aide who provided a link on his Twitter account to a video featuring the rants of Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.[2] This past week, the McCain Campaign has instructed its right-wing hit men to attack Senator Obama's character by trying to paint him as a flip-flopper.[9] Obama has shown some responsiveness to the left's push back. In one recent brouhaha, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, an Obama supporter, took after McCain on a Sunday talk show, saying that the senator's Vietnam experience did not necessarily qualify him to be commander in chief.[17] In my experience, that'''s a new one. Obama is laying plans for his grand tour. Unlike McCain, he is likely to get a big popular reception overseas. His every utterance, though, will be watched closely to see if he makes a mistake.[8] Enough already. The one thing McCain has that his opponent doesn't is experience on every front, economic, foreign, and military. Obama has none except for a short stint in the Illinois legislature and even less in the U.S. Senate where his campaigning has made him only an infrequent participant.[3] From that standpoint it puts the presumptive Republican nominee even further up on the Oval Office qualifications meter. It is doubtful many voters would base their vote for McCain solely on the fact that after losing out to a surface-to-air missile he spent five years in a Vietnamese detention center under conditions that makes Guantanamo look first class. That character-shaping ordeal will be one of the factors under consideration when Americans inclined to look at the entire picture cast their ballots come November. Without his 26 ye |