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Dec-29-2009NYMEX-Crude choppy but cold, dollar, Iran support(topic overview)
CONTENTS:
- Promising signs of an economic recovery, a cold snap and unrest in supply centers combined to drive crude oil futures for February delivery to $78.77 a barrel, up 72 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. (More...)
- Brent crude for February settlement rose $1.01, or 1.3 percent, to $77.32 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. (More...)
- U.S. crude settled up 72 cents at $78.77 a barrel in thin trade, after earlier touching $79.12, the highest since November 23. (More...)
- The modest movement is particularly insignificant since the market is so thinly traded between the Christmas and New Year's holidays, said energy economist James Williams, president of WTRG Economics. (More...)
- Oil traders watch macroeconomic data for signs of economic recovery in the world's top energy consumer, the United States. (More...)
- The U.S. dollar traded at $1.4372 per euro early after advancing 0.2 percent to $1.4378. (More...)
- According to RBC, the prices of the world market for oil, following the results of the tenders at the leading oil stock exchanges increased on December 28, 2009. (More...)
- Traders are anticipating oil and fuel inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, an. (More...)
- News that Russia and Ukraine agreed on the terms of a new deal governing the transit of oil exports to Europe eased concerns about a potential disruption, which had supported prices early Monday. (More...)
- In London, Brent North Sea crude for February gained 1.01 dollars to settle at 77.32 dollars a barrel. (More...)
- The lows for 2009 were the $865 - $870 area in gold.'' (More...)
- Gas prices have edged up for three consecutive days, albeit slowly, for the first time since the beginning of the month. (More...)
- Crude prices continued to rise last week ahead of the Christmas holiday, boosted by both fundamental and financial factors. (More...)
- The notion that the global economic recovery is not sustainable or at best in serious question is viable as the longer end of the interest rate curve as we saw on the TBT chart has not signaled a new higher trend rate as of yet.'' (More...)
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Promising signs of an economic recovery, a cold snap and unrest in supply centers combined to drive crude oil futures for February delivery to $78.77 a barrel, up 72 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has climbed 76% this year so far, and some analysts said it could hit $80 to $85 a barrel before the year closes. [1] The official prices of oil futures of the next month of delivery have amounted to: in London on InterContinental Exchange Futures Europe - IPE Brent Crude - $77.32 (+1.01) per barrel and in New York on New York Mercantile Exchange - Light, Sweet Crude Oil - $78.77 (+0.72) per barrel. [2]
Crude oil for February delivery traded at $78.73 a barrel, down 4 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:31 a.m. Sydney time. [3] Benchmark crude for February delivery added 72 cents to settle at $78.77 a barrel in light, holiday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. [4] On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude CLG0 rose 72 cents, or 0.92 percent to settle at $78.77 a barrel, trading from $77.76 to $79.12, highest intraday price since $79.92 was reached on Nov. 23. [5]
The price of light, sweet crude for February delivery settled at 78.77 dollars a barrel, trading up 72 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Dec. 28, 2009. [6] Light, sweet crude for February delivery settled 72 cents, or 0.9%, higher at $78.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 19. [7] On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at $78.83 a barrel at 0740 GMT, up 6 cents in the Globex electronic session. [8]
NEW YORK, Dec 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures seesawed near unchanged on Tuesday after pushing well above $79 a barrel as a weaker dollar and cold weather which lifted heating oil futures supported the oil futures complex. [9] Russia's energy transit disputes concern EU end users NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose on Monday on cold weather that sent heating oil futures higher and on momentum from continued optimism about economic recovery. [5] Russia-Ukraine energy dispute threat to oil for EU NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose Monday on expectations for colder weather, optimism about economic recovery in the United States and China, as well as concerns about another energy dispute between Russia and Ukraine. [10]
Equities markets move higher NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose on Monday amid forecasts for colder temperatures lifting heating oil and crude oil futures and economic optimism fueling equities markets. [11]
HOUSTON, Dec. 28 -- Energy prices generally rose in light trading Dec. 24 ahead of the Christmas holiday, with the front-month crude contract closing above $78/bbl in the New York market following a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories. [12] EIA also reported a draw of 166 bcf of natural gas from U.S. underground storage in the week ended Dec. 18. That left working gas in storage at 3.4 tcf, still 359 bcf higher than a year ago and 395 bcf above the 5-year average. "After 3 straight days of gains last week (up 2% on Dec. 24 alone…), crude is poised to continue its bullish streak as colder temperatures across the U.S. are driving up prices for heating fuels. Adding support is the Labor Department's Christmas Eve report showing that jobless claims fell to 452,000 for the week ended December 19, a bigger decline than expected," said analysts in the Houston office of Raymond James & Associates Inc. They reported both crude and gas were "poised to rise" Dec. 28 due to colder weather. This was, however, achieved in a low-volume holiday trading environment, and one has only to look at the volume profile to understand that the crude oil market was 'tight' mostly in the last 10 min of trading." Jakob said, "The dollar index was about unchanged on a weekly basis (strong Dec. 21-22, weak Dec. 23-24) and this now makes WTI clearly overbought on a euro correlation basis. He said, "On a fundamental basis, the U.S. has been experiencing harsh winter conditions in the Northeast and the Midwest, but stock levels are so much above normal that this can not yet be a genuine source of worry. The Iranian opposition is still going out on the streets of Teheran to protest, and this is leading to some repressive violence, but paradoxically this could make the imposition of further sanctions somewhat counter-productive and service the current regime rather than weaken it." [12]
Prices rose as high as $79.12 earlier in the day, the highest since Nov. 18. Futures contracts for oil, natural gas and heating oil have all become more expensive this month as snow storms blanketed parts of the country and a sharp drop in supplies of crude and other fuels surprised traders. [13] =The contract settled up US$0.72 at US$78.77 on Monday after surging above US$79 as an extended cold snap in the U.S. triggered an end-of-year rally in energy futures. Futures contracts for oil, natural gas and heating oil have all become more expensive this month as snow storms blanketed parts of the U.S. and a sharp drop in supplies of crude and other fuels surprised traders. [14]
Brent crude for February settlement rose $1.01, or 1.3 percent, to $77.32 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. Oil prices are poised for their best annual performance in a decade as the accelerating economy raises energy demand. The International Energy Agency increased its forecast for 2010 global oil consumption to 86.3 million barrels a day on December 11, 130,000 barrels a day more than its previous estimate. [3] Brent crude oil for February settlement rose as much as 72 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77.03 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $76.84 a barrel at 12:04 p.m. Singapore time. [15]
Crude oil for February delivery rose 72 cents, or nearly 1%, to settle at $78.77 a barrel -- the highest since Nov. 18, when prices settled at $79.58 a barrel. [16] Crude oil rose above $78 per barrel after jobless claims declined last week and were better than expected; thus, reflecting improvement in the U.S. Jobs markets, which is expected to support spending levels that make up two thirds of the overall GDP, supporting demand on crude. Crude contracts for February delivery opened last Friday at $76.55 per barrel, recording its highest at $78.15 per barrel and lowest at $76.20; closing high at $77.75 per barrel. [17] Last week, crude contracts for February delivery jumped by 3.1%, which is considered to be the biggest gain in over four weeks, supported by the biggest drop in U.S. stockpiles since September. The drop in U.S. inventories reflects improvement in demand and consumption levels on crude, while expectations are increasing due to the end of the worst credit crisis since World War II; crude inventories are expected to continue falling supporting expectations for crude to end this year around $80 per barrel. [17]
Crude prices are still affected by the bullish wave dominating commodities, supported by signs of improved prospects for the recovery and the global economic conditions, which are on the path of exiting from the worst economic crisis since World War II. We see that crude is trading near its highest levels in nearly five weeks, which will start feeding through pipeline pressures across numerous countries as we have seen noticeable decline in prices throughout the last period.Crude rose by almost 0.9% yesterday, due to support by the Chinese government's statements, which upgraded their expectations for the Chinese economy to expand beyond 8% throughout 2009. Oil ended yesterday at $78.64 per barrel after opening at $77.80 and recording its highest at $79.12 per barrel.In addition to improving expectations for the global economic performance, weather conditions have currently contributed in supporting crude prices, especially after the snowstorm that hit the U.S and Europe recently; therefore, boosting demand on oil, specifically from the United States since it is considered to be the world's largest oil consumer. [18] NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil rose on Monday to touch a five-week high over $79 a barrel as expectations of colder weather in the United States and signs of economic recovery boosted the outlook for fuel demand. [19]
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil rose nearly 2 per cent to top $78 a barrel for the first time in three weeks on Thursday, buoyed by economic optimism that sent Wall Street to a 2009 high. [20]
NEW YORK - Oil prices spiked above $79 a barrel yesterday for the first time in four weeks as an extended cold snap triggered an end-of-year rally in energy futures. [4] NEW YORK -- Oil futures edged toward $80 a barrel Monday, and retail gasoline prices jumped about 2 cents a gallon nationwide. [21]
News of low stock levels could push oil prices above $80 a barrel by the end of the year, according to Clarence Chu, a trader with Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. [22] Some traders are hoping that a good figure will leave the price of U.S. crude oil above $80 a barrel for the rest of the year and into 2010. [23]
Light sweet crude for February delivery was seen trading at $78.71 a barrel at 12.00 noon Singapore time while Brent crude was at $76.85 a barrel at the same time. Analysts said oil prices to advance further this week as traders bet demand for fuels will rebound when economies emerge from the global recession. [15] Crude oil prices rose to a near 5-week high on Monday, trading at $78.73 at the close of the market amid optimism of the global economic recovery. [24]
Crude oil for January delivery fell 14 cents to $78.63 a barrel in thin trading during a holiday-shortened week. It settled Monday at $78.77 a barrel, after touching $79.12, the highest since Nov. 23, when it hit $79.92. [25] "We could see a quick rise of $5 to $8 a barrel if tensions remain high," Flynn added. Russia had warned the European Union that it might cut its crude oil supplies because Ukraine, located between Russia and the EU, was demanding higher fees to transport oil through its territory. Some of those fears were allayed after the close of trading when Russia and Ukraine announced they had agreed on the terms of a deal governing the transit of oil exports to Europe. [1] Crude Oil began last week's trading with a falling trend, as a barrel of crude oil was traded for less than $73. [26]
Oil soared $2.27 per ounce on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported crude oil inventories decreased by 4.9 million barrels in the week ended December 18. [27] Crude inventories dropped to 327.5 million barrels, the lowest since Jan. 9. Oil, which has gained 76 percent this year, is headed for its biggest yearly increase since 1999 amid speculation a worldwide economic recovery is accelerating, raising energy demand. The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for 2010 global oil demand to 86.3 million barrels a day on Dec. 11, 130,000 barrels a day more than its previous estimate. [28] U.S. inventories of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, fell 1.8 percent to 161.3 million barrels the week ended Dec. 18, the lowest since July, U.S. Energy Department data show. [28]
NEW YORK, Dec. 28 (Xinhua) -- Oil prices topped 79 U.S. dollars a barrel on Monday as investors eye a drop in fuel supplies in a cold winter. [6] NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices gained for a fourth straight session, climbing to their highest level in more than five weeks as cold weather swept across the country and the dollar weakened. [16] NEW YORK: Oil prices rose on Monday on expectations that cold weather in the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer, would boost demand. [29]
Oil prices rose above $79 barrel Monday for the first time in four weeks as an extended cold snap triggered an end-of-year rally in energy futures. FILE - In this March 10, 2009 file photo, Raymond Pereyra, of Attleboro, Mass., pumps gas at the Ell-Bern service station in Boston. [13] Energy prices flattened Tuesday with the majority of futures traders taking the holiday week off, though a weak dollar and falling supplies helped keep a barrel of oil around $79 per barrel. [30]
Heating oil futures led the gains, while London Brent crude rose by more than a dollar to $77.32 a barrel. [22] February Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose 24 cents to $77.56 a barrel. [8] On the NewYork Mercantile Exchange, February crude rose 72 cents U.S., or 0.92 per cent, to settle at $78.77 U.S. a barrel. [31] The February contract for benchmark U.S. light, sweet crudes gained $1.38 to $78.05/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange. [12] Benchmark crude for February delivery was down US$0.11 to US$78.66 a barrel at midday in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. [14] Natural gas for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 34.7 cents, or 6.1%, higher at $5.99 a million British thermal units, the highest settlement price since Jan. 5. [32]
New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February, advanced 72 cents to close at 78.77 dollars a barrel. [29] The New York contract has added more than four dollars in three days, getting added support from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DoE) weekly oil inventories report on Wednesday that showed bigger-than-expected declines. [29]
Currently it seems that for as long that positive data from the U.S. economy is likely to support oil prices. As for the week ahead, traders should follow the leading economic news evens from the U.S. economy and the Euro-Zone as they are likely to impact the value of Oil. Traders should also follow the Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday, as this report proven to have an immediate impact on the market. [26] NYMEX Light Sweet Crude oil (WTI) futures for February 2010 was down a marginal $0.10 to $78.61 on Tuesday, after hitting the session's high of $78.77. Oil has been making a comeback of late after dropping below $70 earlier this month, supported by dwindling crude stockpiles and speculation that demand will pick up as the economy continues to heal. The U.S. Energy Department will release its final weekly report of 2009 on Wednesday. [33]
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a fourth day as forecasts of colder-than-normal weather in the U.S. increased demand for heating fuels. [28]
India previously raised fuel prices by as much as 10% in July 2009, when global crude oil prices were hovering at about $70 a barrel. [34] Crude prices have pressed higher for four straight days and are not too far below the high for the year of $82 a barrel, and that's tugging other fuels higher as well. Retail gas prices increased for the fourth straight day, the first time it's done that since October. [30] Notice that the current nine straight days drop to under $70 had crude oil at the same price as last June and August.'' This underscores how important it is to understand not only the trend of markets, but the VELOCITY and STRENGTH of the trends.'' While it can be said that Crude is almost a double this year that is suggestive that you bought at the bottom.'' [35] Yesterday was the first day's trading since Christmas Eve, when Brent crude closed at $76.31. The rise in price was despite thin trading, with many people still enjoying their Christmas break. The true direction of the oil price will only be tested once volumes return to their normal levels in the first week of January. [36] Irina Yesipova, a spokeswoman for the Russian energy ministry, said that the deal would be signed in the coming days and that no interruption in supplies was expected. Another international hot spot seemed likely to make traders jittery through the rest of the week. Iranian authorities Monday intensified their crackdown against a budding opposition movement, just a day after at least eight people were killed during protests. Adding to the volatility, the last week of every year is typically a low-volume trading affair in which many of the major players sit on the sidelines and those that are left tend to overreact to world events, said Tom Kloza, senior oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service in New Jersey. "We're looking at one-sixth to one-fifth of the normal trading volume this week, and you tend to find a lot of the people who are left are grasping at straws. This looks like it could be a false rally," he said. [1] Analysts were expecting supplies to dip by 2 million barrels, according to a consensus estimate collected by energy information provider Platts. As the year ends, Cordier said oil prices could touch $80 a barrel but he expects them to back off to the mid-$70 range soon after. [16] One analyst thinks that oil prices could rise to over US$80 a barrel before the end of the year, because of news of stock levels being low. [37] Oil prices hung below US$79 a barrel yesterday in Asia, giving back some gains as Asian stock markets mostly fell and the U.S. dollar strengthened moderately. [14]
A year ago, the U.S. average was about a dollar cheaper and the California average was $1.12 cheaper, and oil was trading around $40 a barrel. [1] Oil climbed above $79 a barrel as U.S. holiday spending rose 3.6 percent from a year earlier, according to an estimate by MasterCard Advisors' SpendingPulse. [38] Oil rose 0.9 percent as U.S. holiday retail sales climbed during the holiday season and Chinese government officials said economic growth will be more than 8 percent in 2009. The U.S. economy will turn in its best performance since 2004 next year as spending picks up and companies boost investment and hiring, said Dean Maki, the most accurate forecaster in a Bloomberg News survey. [3] DALLAS (Bloomberg) - Crude oil rose to a five-week high as U.S. retail sales climbed over the holiday season and China said its economy grew faster than estimated this year, signs the worst global recession since the Second World War is abating. [38]
Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Crude oil traded near a one-month high above $78 a barrel on signs the global economy is recovering from the worst recession since World War II. [3] However later on the trend reversed and crude oil reached over $78 a barrel for the first time in over 3 weeks. [26]
Jobs data further lifted sentiment after the four-week moving average of new applications for jobless benefits reached the lowest level in 15 months. Thaioil estimates that crude will this week trade within the range of $75 and $80 a barrel on supportive U.S. economic data and tight inventories ahead of the year-end. [39] The dollar depreciated against the euro from $1.4336 in the previous week to $1.4377 on the back of positive U.S. economic data. The market swiftly changed its view of the U.S. currency from the beginning of the week, when the dollar hit a 31/2-month high against the euro, as investors became worried about the fiscal health of the Eurozone after Moody's became the third major ratings agency to downgrade Greece's debt rating. The Dow Jones industrial average rose sharply to reach the highest level this year at 10,520.10 points on Christmas Eve. [39]
Severe cold weather in the Western hemisphere and huge drops in inventory data strengthened market fundamentals while the dollar depreciation and impressive economic data lifted the demand for riskier assets. These factors helped oil prices jump from $73 to close above $78. [39] Oil prices fell to near $78 a barrel Tuesday as the dollar recovered against the British pound and the yen. [30] Although predictions on oil prices for 2010 vary, the concensus has a barrel oil ending the year comfortably above the $100 mark. [36] Oil prices have climbed to more than $79 a barrel, reaching the highest levels for five weeks. [22]
At the pump, retail gas prices rose by less then a penny overnight to a new national average of $2.603 a gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. [13] Kloza added that oil and gasoline prices could cool in January as bills for holiday retail purchases dampen enthusiasm and demand. He said Americans usually drive less in January after traveling to see family and friends during the holiday season. This last week, however, the average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline in California rose for the second straight week, up 2.1 cents to $2.933. [1]
In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 2.49 cents to $2.0984 gallon while gasoline ticked higher by less than a penny to $2.0192 a gallon. [30] In London, February Brent crude LCOG0 rose 80 cents, or 1.05 percent, to $77.11 a barrel, trading from $76.20 to $77.42. [11] Crude continues their upside move for the third consecutive week, currently trading above $78 per barrel, supported by rising expectations for a stronger economic recovery in the U.S, which is the largest energy consumer in the world. [17] Global financial markets celebrated Christmas holidays last Friday; whereas UK and Canada today continuing the celebration and are out of the market for Boxing Day, which is expected to reflect on the market with the low-volume year-end trading. Crude opened today at $77.15 per barrel, recording its highest at $78.62 and lowest at $77.14 per barrel; currently trading around $78.15 per barrel. [17] Brent crude touched $77.25 per barrel, an increase of 1.2p on the opening price, in early trading yesterday. [36] Crude is currently trading around $78.69 per barrel, opening trades at $78.59 where we expect it to face more inclines, especially incase technical resistance levels are breached by it that are at $79.18 per barrel. Forex Trader Library Receive over 15 hours (8 CD's) of our best Forex trading education in one package! Containing the newest Advanced Forex CD, this education pack focuses on exactly what you need to know to become a successful Forex Trader. [18]
Light sweet crude for February rose to $78.84 per barrel, up 79 cents on the session. [27]
In London, Brent crude for February delivery added 12 cents to $77.44 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. [30] In London, Brent crude for February delivery rose 1.01 dollars to settle at 77.32 dollars a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. [6]
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 59 cents, or 0.8%, higher at $76.90 a barrel. [40] Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled $1.01, or 1.3%, higher at $77.32 a barrel. At least eight were dead after clashes between Iranian security forces and antigovernment protesters in the worst violence since the crackdown on opposition rallies following. [7]
U.S. crude settled up 72 cents at $78.77 a barrel in thin trade, after earlier touching $79.12, the highest since November 23. [19] During Monday's trading in London, U.S. crude touched $79.12 a barrel before falling back later to $78.77. [22] In London trading, Brent crude rose to US$77.32 and U.S. crude reached US$79.12 a barrel. [37]
Futures rose to as high as 79.12 dollars a barrel earlier in the session, which is the highest trading price in about five weeks. [6]
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures rose Tuesday as the market awaited new data on U.S. oil inventories while a crackdown on opposition in Iran raised questions about the major oil producer's stability. [41] NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures ended at a five-week high Monday as separate situations involving Russia and Iran, both large oil producers, stoked otherwise light holiday trading. [7]
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures edged higher Monday as strong U.S. retail sales boosted the economic outlook of the few traders in the market. [40]
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rose to a three-month high in December, while prices in the hard-hit housing sector stalled in October, breaking a five-month string of gains. [11] NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. home prices were unchanged in October, according to the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller indexes released on Tuesday, indicating stabilization in the hard-hit housing sector though the figures dashed hopes for a sixth straight monthly increase. [10]
The temperature in New York may fall as low as 20 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 7 Celsius) tomorrow, 5 degrees below average, according to Weather.com. "It is cold in the U.S.," said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Zug, Switzerland-base Petromatrix GmbH. "That's going to bring some additional demand." [28]
Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs are predicting it will reach $110 by the end of the year. Figures later this week are expected to reveal that oil stocks in the U.S. are falling, indicating demand is rising as the U.S. economy recovers. [36] Analysts say oil could rise above US$80 before the end of the year if U.S. inventories figures show a drop in stockpiles, which would suggest improving demand in the world's largest economy. [14]
Thursday's gains extended a more than 3 per cent rise on Wednesday due to government data showing a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude inventories last week. Inventories of oil products, such as gasoline and heating oil, also fell. [20] Oil was also supported by data showing lower U.S. crude oil inventories, traders said. [20] Crude oil stood near a three-week settlement high helped by signs of economic recovery in the United States and large declines in U.S. crude inventories. [34] Signs of economic recovery, unrest in Russia and Iran and cold weather combine to push crude oil futures to a four-week high. [1]
The optimism tends to boost crude oil prices, as it is believed that an economic improvement should increase demand for energy. [26] Spot prices are starting to perk up as a result. According to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, natural gas prices jumped earlier in December to the highest levels since January, and heating oil prices climbed during the middle of this month. The EIA is expected to release its weekly survey on retail gas prices later Monday. [13] More frigid temperatures are expected, with up to 4 inches of snow forecast for New England, and up to 7 inches of snow along the eastern shores of the Lower Great Lakes. According to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, natural gas prices jumped in early December to the highest since January, and heating-oil prices climbed during the middle of this month. [4]
The modest movement is particularly insignificant since the market is so thinly traded between the Christmas and New Year's holidays, said energy economist James Williams, president of WTRG Economics. He said prices will continue to bounce around in a tight range. [25] After rising for four days in a row, the price of oil is at a four-week high amid signs of strengthening economic activity. They include a report from SpendingPulse, an information service by MasterCard Advisors, that U.S. retail spending during the holiday season was up 3.6% from a year earlier. [1] The U.S. is consuming less petroleum than it did at the same time last year, when oil and gas prices were cheaper and the economy was in recession. [13] Last week U.S. stockpiles fell by 5m barrels, a sign that the giant's economy is improving and that oil prices could be set to rise. [36] Oil prices have been lifted this week over hopes that figures due to be released later will show oil stocks are being reduced in the U.S., thus indicating that demand is rising. [23] SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Global oil prices advanced further in Asian trade Monday on hopes of increase in fuel demand during winter season in the U.S. and Europe. [15]
Oil prices had retreated for nine consecutive sessions, the longest slide since July 2001, and fell below $70 two weeks ago as rising inventories fueled demand concerns. [16] Barring any major political developments, however, Williams expect oil prices to trade between $70 and $80 in the early part of 2010. "The outlook for the economy is a slow, slow recovery for a while," he said. "That doesn't create an environment for soaring prices." [25] '''We could trade anywhere in the $80-to-$85 range by Thursday, which will set the tone for the first two weeks of the year,''' said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. Crude prices are testing the upper end of a trading range between the high $60s and low $80s, in place since the end of July, he said. [3] The average price for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' basket of 12 reference crudes increased $1.53 to $74.24/bbl. OPEC's basket price has averaged $60.82/bbl so far this year, vs. an average $94.45/bbl for all of 2008. [12]
Tracking the rallying crude market, diesel prices in Singapore rose nearly $3 to settle the week around $82 a barrel. [39] Gasoline prices in Singapore surged more than $4 to close the week above $83 a barrel, mainly due to higher crude prices and incremental demand from Vietnam and Malaysia. Refinery turnarounds in both countries encouraged operators to seek more cargoes in the spot market. [39]
London's Brent North Sea crude for February delivery gained 86 cents to $76.31 a barrel. [15] U.S. crude for February delivery fell 28 cents to USD78.49 a barrel by 0332 GMT. [42]
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 4.9 million barrels in crude stocks last week, far more than the forecast drop of fewer than 1 million. This reflected lower U.S. crude imports after refineries tried to minimise inventories for year-end tax purposes. [39] Last week, the U.S. Energy Department said that crude inventories fell 4.9 million barrels as against the widely expected 2.0 million barrels drop. [33]
Consensus estimates suggest crude oil inventories declined 2.2 million barrels from 327.5 million the prior week. [33] Crude oil and distillate inventories were expected to have fallen last week, according to a preliminary Reuters survey of analysts on Monday. [5] Concerns about unrest in Iran and the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over transit fees for crude oil going to Europe also were supportive, sources said. The market also expected this week's oil inventory reports to show crude oil and distillate inventories fell last week. [31]
Chinese industrial profit nationwide rose 7.8 percent in the first 11 months from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The United Arab Emirates deepened its curbs on some crude oil supplies to Asia for February, a move traders said may reflect the abundance of lighter distillate-rich grades in the market. [11] Japan Energy Corp, the nation's sixth-biggest oil refiner, said on Monday it planned to refine 5 percent more crude oil in January-March from a year earlier. [11]
Crude oil, like other commodities, is priced in dollars, and a weaker greenback can help support prices. [16] Some analysts now expect Crude Oil to continue rising as there doesn't seem to be much in the way of stopping a price surge. [43] While talking to CNBC, John Kilduff, of Round Earth Capital, said that the price rise is mainly due to the concerns about the crude oil supply. He categorically denied any actual shortfall on the supply side. [44]
Cooler-than-normal temperatures have supported rising oil prices, said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group. He added that temperatures in the Northeast have been about five degrees lower than average and are expected to remain that way for the near term. Prices were also boosted by a softer dollar, which edged lower against its major rivals. [16] From that low in spring, gold rallied away from the 200 day average until it reached a point where price was $250 dollars above the average when it peaked at $1227. [35] First is the 50 day moving average at the current price area of $1110.'' This is one potential price zone where a rally might re-establish itself.'' [35]
Nationally, the average price increased 1.8 cents to $2.607, according to the Energy Department's weekly survey of service stations. [1]
Oil gained 72 cents to $78.77 yesterday, the highest close since November 18, and has advanced 76 percent in 2009. [3] Heating oil for January delivery gained 1 percent to $2.0554 a gallon. [28] Heating oil for January increased 2.38¢ to $2.04/gal on NYMEX. Reformulated blend stock for oxygenate blending for the same month gained 2.3¢ to $1.99/gal. [12]
Cold weather and snowstorms, especially in northeastern states, also lifted heating oil demand which led to a big decline in distillate inventories. In addition to U.S. supply and demand issues, the market was supported by Opec's decision to keep its supply restrictions unchanged at 4.2 million bpd. [39] Colder weather in the U.S. and Europe also raised heating oil demand and helped draw down distillate inventories. [39]
Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast -- the world's largest heating oil market -- were expected to average above normal on Monday before dipping to below normal through Friday, private forecaster DTN Meteorlogix said. [19] Tens of thousands of Iran's government supporters rallied on Tuesday, state media said, and a reformist party called on rulers to apologize two days after eight people were killed in anti-government protests. U.S. heating demand this week is expected to average about 2 percent above normal, the National Weather Service said Monday. [9] Cold weather will raise U.S. consumption of heating fuels by 6.7 percent in the next seven days, according to forecasts from Weather Derivatives. [28]
Prices rose following forecasts of colder weather in the United States, and the expectation of increased consumption and falling reserves. That would indicate that demand was rising and signal an improvement in the U.S. economy. [22] Oil prices are pushing US$80 for the first time in five weeks following cold weather and optimism in the United States, following expectation that consumption will increase and reserves will fall. [37]
Oil has climbed more than 12 percent from a dip below $70 two weeks ago on expectations of rising consumption and falling inventories in the United States, where companies have been drawing down stockpiles for end-year tax purposes. [19]
The more immediate concern for oil traders is whether a barrel of oil will end the year above $80. [36] "We have tensions over oil pipeline negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine, and when the pipeline was shut down last year, oil jumped $14 a barrel in just a few days," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago. [1]
Last year, futures traded between $32.40 and $147.27 a barrel, an all-time high. [15]
On Dec. 24, the contract gained 1.1 percent to $76.31 a barrel, the highest settlement since Dec. 7. [15] The front-month contract climbed as high as $6 in earlier trading, the highest intraday level since Jan. 8. [32]
NYMEX January RBOB RBF0 rose 2.88 cents, or 1.45 percent, to settle at $2.0184 a gallon, trading from $1.9864 to $2.0285. [5] On Thursday last week, benchmark crude rose $1.38 to settle at $78.05. [22]
The spread between the current front month and the five-year forward crude contract CLc61 was at $13.27, based on the February 2015 contract Thursday settlement at $92.05. [11] The January natural gas contract lost 17.8¢ to $5.64/MMbtu on NYMEX--the largest gas price drop in 2 weeks. [12] A more difficult hurdle to overcome is the continually rising price tag, which currently stands at an estimated $16.2 billion, up from only $2 billion in 2002. The project consortium--ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Shell--wants financial support from the Canadian government, but with North America already facing a structural gas glut, it's debatable whether Ottawa will agree to help." [12]
The cartel is satisfied with prices at $70-80 a barrel, a range that it sees as acceptable to consumers, producers and investors alike. [39] Prices have since dropped to around $78.45, but could easily gain traction again after the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence report. [24] Earlier, it touched $79.12, the highest since November 23. The U.S. economy next year will turn in its best performance since 2004 as spending picks up and companies increase investment and hiring, said Dean Maki, the most accurate forecaster in a Bloomberg News survey. [38] The world's largest economy will expand 3.5 percent in 2010, said Mr. Maki, the chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. [38] Equities strength and weaker dollar helped to support also," said Tom Bentz, analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc, in New York. [20] NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil fell slightly Tuesday from a five-week high hit in the previous session as the dollar firmed against the yen. [25]
Oil traders watch macroeconomic data for signs of economic recovery in the world's top energy consumer, the United States. [20] Oil continues to rise following positive economic data from the U.S. The number of U.S. individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, dropped to 452,000, the lowest level since September 2008. This has increased speculations for global recovery. [26] Better employment figures in the U.S. last week also helped to lift hopes of economic recovery and raised expectations of stronger consumer spending and oil consumption. [22] The dollar weakened against the euro and higher-yielding currencies on improved risk appetite amid expectations of a U.S. economic recovery. [9]
The U.S. dollar traded at $1.4372 per euro early after advancing 0.2 percent to $1.4378. [3]
U.S. stocks rose modestly as rising commodity prices boosted resource companies and retailers gained after data pointed to a better holiday shopping season performance. [10] Global stocks rose on Monday, but U.S. equities, after being lifted early by increased retail sales during the key holiday season, faltered as airline stocks were weighed by security concerns. [5]
According to RBC, the prices of the world market for oil, following the results of the tenders at the leading oil stock exchanges increased on December 28, 2009. [2] Today, the market saw an increase in natural gas and commodity stock prices. Later in the day, energy stocks slipped from their earlier highs. [44] Last week, the Energy Information Administration reported a drop of 4.9 million barrels in crude stocks. [16]
The Energy Information Administration said commercial U.S. crude inventories fell 4.9 million bbl to 327.5 million bbl in the week ended Dec. 18, surpassing the consensus among Wall Street analysts for a 1.6 million bbl decline. [12] U.S. crude inventories have been in decline in the past three weeks amid rising energy demand. [6]
For the U.S., the key figures over the short term will come from the Energy Information Administration, a section of the U.S. Department of Energy, which is due to release figures on U.S. oil stockpiles. [36] Oil and energy market saw an upheaval on account of the alleged Nigerian angle to the U.S. Bomb scare. [44]
Severe winter weather in the U.S., the world's largest Oil consumer, has caused Oil consumption to rise, which has also caused prices to rise. [24]
Shares of three state-run oil marketing companies rose by 0.60% to 1.48% even as media reports suggested that the government has no immediate plans to raise fuel prices. [34] The Hindustan Times newspaper, without citing any sources, said in a report that prices of auto fuel could increase "anytime early next year." "There is no such proposal yet," Petroleum Secretary R S Pandey told Reuters, when asked to comment on the news report. [42] NEW DELHI -- India currently has no plan to revise local retail fuel prices, despite rising global crude prices, federal Petroleum Secretary R.S. Pandey told Dow. [45] "Last week, crude made the largest advance in several weeks, supported by the biggest drop in stockpiles since September, which is expected to continue and produce a year-end price near 80 dollars," said Mike Fitzpatrick at MF Global. "With unseasonable cold forecast to continue into January, this could very well be the case, as consumption of heating fuels increase," he said. [29]
The diesel market in January is expected to receive support from stronger heating oil demand as well. [39] Heating oil futures led gains in the oil complex as forecasters called for colder weather in the United States. [19] Data for distillates, which include heating oil, is in focus as winter starts to bite in the United States and Europe. [15]
Traders are anticipating oil and fuel inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, an. [41] Volumes were thin, however, and analysts were wary of drawing too many conclusions from intraday movements, echoing sentiment about holiday-thinned trading among oil traders. [9] With a slow trading week for currencies, it appears that Crude Oil may be injecting some much desired volatility in the market. [24] The two blue arrows drawn on the chart shows the next key resistance area in crude oil.'' [35] Concerns about unrest in Iran and the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over transit fees for crude oil going to Europe also were supportive, sources said. [5]
News that Russia and Ukraine agreed on the terms of a new deal governing the transit of oil exports to Europe eased concerns about a potential disruption, which had supported prices early Monday. [19] The world prices for oil, following the results of the tenders on Monday, have gone up, Kazakhstan Today agency reports citing RIA RosBusinessConsulting (RBC). [2] The key pressure on global oil prices is likely to come from demand from recovering Western countries and the emerging economies of China, India and Brazil. [36] American refiners have cut back on oil imports, which has helped reduce supplies and increase prices. Analyst Andrew Lipow said that oil prices also are rising as China and India expand their petroleum imports. "That oil is finding a buyer somewhere," Lipow said. [13]
Prices have risen more than 12% as government reports have shown crude supplies falling more than twice as much as analysts' predictions two weeks in a row. [16] "The market continues to climb on bullish momentum. Cold weather, economic optimism, Russian/Ukraine concerns, possible further draws in this week's inventory reports, all are in the mix," said Tom Bentz, analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. Private forecaster DTN Meteorlogix said a seasonal weather pattern will be in place, with polar air dominant across most of the United States during the next week. [5] SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Crude futures were listless in Asia Tuesday amid thin trading, as analysts believe bulls will likely start another unsustainable run by the year-end. [8]
Some of today's trading action may be guided by the Conference Board's consumer confidence report for December, which is set to be made public at 10:00 a.m. ET. Trading activity is likely to remain relatively subdued for the rest of the week amid another holiday-shortened week due to the New Year's Day holiday this Friday. [33] The dollar also decline slightly against a basket of foreign currencies supporting the continuation of the upside move for oil and commodities. The dollar index opened trading yesterday at 77.76 levels to close at 77.63, at a time we see it trading today at 77.47 levels, after it had opened its trades at 77.63. [18] The dollar rose against the yen but slipped against some major currencies in holiday-thinned trading. [5]
In London, Brent North Sea crude for February gained 1.01 dollars to settle at 77.32 dollars a barrel. [29] Crude double dipped at the bottom by developing a December low and then a subsequent February seasonal low under the 40 dollar area, which if you recall was near the 1991 Iraq invasion high. [35]
The lows for 2009 were the $865 - $870 area in gold.'' That pullback low was to exactly the same price as the peak of January 21, 1980 when gold touched $875.'''' [35] Should gold bottom in the 1080-1090 area and solidly move above the 50 day average, gold would stage an assault on the upper trend line where a major channel in which price has bounced off the channel three times over the past 13 months. The second area is the horizontal channel line drawn off the 2007 and 2008 top.'' We can see how this area points to the price area where gold broke over 1000 to finally rally into higher triple digit prices.'' This pullback or test of the breakout area would give us a range of about 1020-1040 in price. [35] The final area is where the bottom channel line, the small blue downtrend line drawn off the March and June peaks and the 200 day moving average converge in price.'' That would put the price range at about the 950-990 area and will be the most SOLID PRICE SUPPORT area for gold in which gold would still maintain its upward momentum within this channel.'' [35]
Gas prices have edged up for three consecutive days, albeit slowly, for the first time since the beginning of the month. [13]
On the U.S. spot market, gas at Henry Hub, La., climbed 18.5¢ to $5.78/MMbtu. [12] Natural gas fell 5.7 cents to $5.933 per 1,000 cubic feet. Associated Press Writer Pablo Gorondi contributed to this story from Budapest, Hungary. [30] A gallon of regular unleaded is 2.1 cents cheaper than a month ago, but nearly $1 more expensive than a year ago. [30]
A media report had suggested that auto fuel prices could be raised early next year. [34] The government has no immediate plans to raise fuel prices, the country's petroleum secretary said on Tuesday, after a newspaper report that auto fuel prices could be raised early next year. [42]
Crude prices continued to rise last week ahead of the Christmas holiday, boosted by both fundamental and financial factors. [39] The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a slightly higher opening on Tuesday, with mood remaining buoyant amid thin holiday trade. [27] U.S. holiday spending gained 3.6 percent from a year earlier, according to an estimate by MasterCard Advisors''' SpendingPulse. [3]
U.S. stocks dipped on Monday as airline shares faltered amid security worries, while losses were limited by retail shopping data indicating improved consumer spending. [19] Oil markets were closed on Friday for Christmas. Inventory figures detailing the amount of oil held in stock are expected later this week from the Energy Information Administration. [22]
Iran arrested at least 10 leading opposition figures on Monday, a day after eight people were killed in anti-government protests, according to an opposition website. LyondellBasell Industries has restarted a crude distillation unit at its Houston refinery. Valero Energy Corp ( VLO.N ) said that a crude unit shut last week due to a fire at its Texas City, Texas, refinery remained shut. [10]
The notion that the global economic recovery is not sustainable or at best in serious question is viable as the longer end of the interest rate curve as we saw on the TBT chart has not signaled a new higher trend rate as of yet.'' Should the recovery falter at a time of massive credit contraction the liquidation of assets both paper and hard cannot be dismissed.'' [35] Signs of China's economic recovery added to the supportive backdrop for prices. [19]
The rally was supported by optimism about the U.S. recovery after bullish economic data released last week, starting with the fastest growth since February 2007 in existing home sales and followed by improved consumer sentiment. [39]
SOURCES
1. Oil and gasoline prices continue to climb -- latimes.com
2. Eng.Gazeta.kz - World prices for oil gone up
3. Oil nears new high on recovery signs
4. Oil rises on storms, tight supply | Philadelphia Inquirer | 12/29/2009
5. NYMEX-Crude ends up on cold, recovery optimism | Reuters
6. Oil breaks 79 dollar on cold weather_English_Xinhua
7. OIL FUTURES: Crude Up On Iran's Protests, Russian Oil Disputes - WSJ.com
8. OIL FUTURES: Crude Listless In Asia; Another Bull Run Possible - WSJ.com
9. NYMEX-Crude choppy but cold, dollar, Iran support | Reuters
10. NYMEX-Crude up on cold, Russia-Ukraine, economy | Reuters
11. NYMEX-Crude up on cold weather, economic optimism | Reuters
12. MARKET WATCH: Crude topped $78/bbl on Christmas Eve - Oil & Gas Journal
13. Storms, Falling Supply Drives Energy Prices Up - ABC News
14. Oil hangs below US$79 in Asia after surge - Taiwan News Online
15. Oil hovers near $79 a barrel in Asia | 28 December 2009 | www.commodityonline.com
16. Oil rises above $79 - Dec. 28, 2009
17. Fundamental Oil Report (2009-12-28) | IBT Commodities & Futures
18. Fundamental Oil Report (2009-12-29) | IBT Commodities & Futures
19. Oil hits five-week high on U.S. cold, optimism | Reuters
20. Oil rises above US$78 a barrel - Fiji Times Online
21. Oil futures near $80 a barrel - The Denver Post
22. BBC News - Oil price rise nears $80 a barrel
23. Oil prices climb over $78 mark
24. COMMODITY Forex News
25. Oil falls from 5-week high - Dec. 29, 2009
26. Could Crude Oil Reach $80 a Barrel?
27. Crude Oil Rises For Fourth Straight Day
28. Crude Oil Rises in New York as Cold Weather Boosts U.S. Demand - BusinessWeek
29. channelnewsasia.com - Oil prices rise as cold snap grips US
30. Oil Near $79 a Barrel; Gasoline Prices Ticking Up - ABC News
31. Oil price hits five-week high | Kelowna.com
32. Seasonal Shivers Help Push Price For Natural Gas Up More Than 6% - WSJ.com
33. Crude Lingers Near $79 Ahead Of Consumer Confidence Data
34. PSU OMCs shrug off rally in crude oil prices
35. Gold, Copper, And Crude - A Look Into 2010
36. Further oil price rises predicted on US demand - Telegraph
37. Oil Prices on the Rise
38. The Royal Gazette
39. Oil market outlook
40. OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Up On Retail Sales In Quiet Trading - WSJ.com
41. OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Up On Tighter Supplies, Iran Unrest - WSJ.com
42. Reuters - Government: No immediate plan to up fuel prices
43. USD Mixed vs. Majors; Crude Oil Surges towards $79
44. Nigerian Bomb Angle Rocks Energy Market; Crude Oil Up | Benzinga.com
45. India Official: No Plan to Revise Retail Fuel Prices - WSJ.com
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