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Apr-13-2008US import prices rise 2.8% in March(topic overview)
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The key stats are the continual, large increase in imported oil prices and the alarming, 15% year-over-year increase in import prices. It's very hard for the U.S. Federal Reserve, and for Americans, to get control of inflation / limit costs in the face of such large, sustained energy price increases. Economists and analysts had hoped that oil prices would moderate by early 2008, but petroleum has continued to march higher, for a variety of factors (demand, oil as an investment, weak dollar), suggesting that the only thing the U.S. can do to reduce its imported oil bill is to substantially lower consumption and/or use energy substitutes. [1] U.S. import prices rose in March, due to oil costs and the largest rise in non-petroleum costs in history, figures that do not bode well for inflation.[2] If you take out energy costs, other import prices rose by +1.1% in March and by +5.4% since March 2007. That year over year reading is nearly twice the level of last year. It looks like the increase in non-petroleum prices is the largest one-month increase since the index was first published monthly in December 1988.[3] While petroleum prices surged again, import prices spiked in large part because of non-petroleum imports, which rose a record 1.1 percent. Much of this was due to food and feed prices, which rose by 2.5 percent in March and are up 14.0 percent over the last 12 months. That's the largest annual increase since the year ending March 1995.[4] WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. import prices rose by a more-than-expected 2.8 percent in March as petroleum prices jumped 9.1 percent, a Labor Department report showed on Friday.[5] The Department of Labor report showed that import prices jumped 2.8 percent in March after edging up just 0.2 percent in the previous month.[6]
The U.S. Import Price Index increased 2.8 percent in March, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The department said higher prices for both petroleum and nonpetroleum imports contributed to the increase.[7]
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 2 percent rise in import prices in March after a 0.2 percent gain in February. They also forecast a 0.5 percent rise in export prices after a previously reported 0.9 percent gain in February, which the Labor Department revised to 1.1 percent.[5] The Labor Department also said that export prices increased by 1.5 percent in March following a revised 1.1 percent increase in February.[8]
Export prices have risen 7.9 percent over the last 12 months, the largest increase since the Labor Department began publishing the data.[5]
Friday, April 11, 2008 8:55:32 AM - Friday morning, the Department of Labor released its report on import and export prices in the month of March, showing that both import and export prices saw significant increases compared to the previous month.[8]
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - U.S. import prices rose much faster than expected, driven not only by surging energy prices, but by a record monthly increase in non-petroleum imports, the Labor Department said today.[4] Overall import prices rose 2.8% last month, after increasing an unrevised 0.2% in February, the Labor Department said Friday.[9]
Import prices have risen 14.8 percent over the last 12 months, the largest year-to-year gain since the Labor Department began publishing the data.[5] The U.S. Labor Department reported that import prices jumped 2.8% last month. That's the highest since last December's unnerving 3.2% spike.[10] WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A surge in prices for imported petroleum pushed the prices of goods imported into the U.S. up by 2.8% in March, the most since November 2007, the Labor Department reported Friday. Imported petroleum prices jumped by 9.1% in March, their biggest increase since rising 12.4% in November 2007.[11] FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Prices for imported products have risen above expectations in the United States in March fuelled by petroleum prices, although non petroleum products' prices have also swollen considerably, according to the latest report by the Labor Department.[12]
The price of imported oil soared almost 61 percent in the year ended in February, the Labor Department said last month.[13]
Import prices rose only 0.2 percent in February, due largely to a drop in imported oil prices of 1.5 percent.[13] The government's March import price index, to be released Friday, is expected to jump sharply from the previous month due largely to higher oil prices.[13]
Import prices index has risen 2.8% in March, following a 0.2% increase in February, as petroleum imports' prices rose 9.1% from February to March.[12] Last year's "year over year" levels showed that prices rose by +2.8%. Petroleum import prices increased 9.1% last month and fell 1.9% in February, but these same prices soared by about 60.0% since March 2007.[3]
Import prices rose 2.8 percent in March, which is the largest monthly increase since last November.[4] The bigger than expected increase in import prices was largely due to a sharp rise in petroleum import prices, which rebounded by 9.1 percent in March after falling 1.9 percent in February.[8] Excluding the jump in petroleum import prices, import prices still increased by 1.1 percent following a 0.7 percent increase in the previous month.[8] On a year-over-year basis, the pace of import price growth unexpectedly accelerated to 14.8 percent in March compared to 13.6 percent in the previous month.[8]
Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers, predicted that import prices increased 1.7 percent in March, but only 0.5 percent when oil is excluded.[13] Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected March 2008 import prices to rise 1.8%.[1] Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting import prices to rise by 2.2% in March.[11]
On a year-over-year basis, import prices are up almost 15% -- a level that historically indicates that U.S. consumer price inflation will trend higher, due to price pressure from foreign goods/services. U.S. Federal Reserve officials, economists, executives, analysts and others closely monitor changes in import and export prices because they provide a read on inflation in the U.S. and internationally.[1] High import prices are adding 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent to the core inflation rate, Matus said in a note to clients, "keeping it frustratingly above" the Federal Reserve's target.[13]
The Federal Reserve will say enough's enough and pull a Volcker and hike rates. Of course, at this point in the cycle that decision would exacerbate the already weakened economy, although it probably would take the edge off import prices by more than a little. The economy will weaken of its own accord, doing the Fed's dirty work without the political blowback that would arise if the central bank took the lead.[10]
Non-petroleum import prices are advancing at a roughly 33% faster rate than general inflation.[10] WASHINGTON -- Import prices surged in March, lifted by not only oil but also the biggest jump in nonpetroleum costs on record, a worrisome sign for inflation.[9] In that case, tempering import prices seems inevitable if energy costs merely stay flat, although a drop of oil prices to, say, $80 a barrel would have a huge soothing effect on import price calculations in the near term. Given that this is a presidential election year, the odds for the first one look dim.[10] The "good news," if we can call it that, is that much of the rise in import prices was due to higher energy costs.[10]
The larger-than-expected rise in import prices boosted the dollar in early trading after the report.[5] Import prices surged in March and some of the price jumps are a record for modern trading history.[3] Changes in import prices are influenced heavily by the price of oil, which broke records in March as it charged past $110 a barrel.[13]
The advance took the currency past parity to 0.9994 by 8:40AM EST. The pair moved as March Import Prices rose at a stronger than expected 2.8% month over month versus the consensus of 2%.[8] Overall import prices rose by +2.8% in March, after increasing an unrevised 0.2% in February.[3]
Import prices rose 2.8% from February, and food and beverage import prices are up 2.5%, after going unchanged in February.[2]
U.S. export prices rose 1.5 percent during the month, also more than expected and the largest monthly gain on record, as prices for farm and food products continued to rise.[5] U.S. export prices in March shot up by a record 1.5 percent. Agricultural export prices again drove this increase, as they rose 4.1 percent in March.[4]
Export prices rose 1.5 percent in March, after increasing 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent in the previous two months.[7]
Export prices rose at an annual rate of 7.9 percent, while non-agricultural export prices rose 5.6 percent year-over-year. Friday, April 11, 2008 8:42:14 AM - The Swiss currency was strong against its American and European counterparts in trading on Friday morning in New York.[8]
Excluding a 4.1 percent increase in agricultural export prices, export prices still rose 1.2 percent in March.[8] Export prices increased 1.5% in March following increases by 1.1% and 1.2% in the previous two months.[12] Concerning exports, agricultural prices increased 4.1% in March 2008, non-agricultural prices advanced 1.2%, consumer goods and automobiles each rose 0.2%, and capital goods prices were unchanged.[1]
The price of goods from Mexico rose 2.2 percent in March, and have increased 17.2 percent over the last year.[4] The price of imports from China rose by 0.7 percent, and have increased 4.0 percent over the last year.[4] Prices for non-petroleum imports rose 5.4 percent over the last year, which is the largest annual gain since December 1988.[4]
Prices for non-petroleum imports rose at an annual rate of 5.4 percent, the fastest growth since December of 1988.[8]
Over the past 12 months, overall import prices have risen a record 14.8 percent.[4] Petroleum import prices are up by 9.1%, according to the Department of Labor. Import prices overall are up 14.8%, since 2007, making this the largest hike on record.[2] Non petroleum import prices have posted a 1.1% monthly rise, the largest increase on record.[12] Petroleum import prices also contributed to the overall increase, after falling in February.[4]
Food and beverage import prices are up 2.5%, and the impact is likely to be seen as a rapid increase in food prices at grocery stores nation wide.[2]
Economists were expecting import prices to be up by +2.1% in March. It just goes from bad to worse.[3] The year over year readings show that since March 2007, import prices have risen by a whopping +14.8%.[3] In any case, the 14.8% surge in import prices over the past year falls to 5.4% after stripping out energy.[10]
Since February, import prices on goods from China have increased by 0.7%, while imports from Canada rose 3.2%.[2] The lesser rise in non-petroleum import prices is hollow comfort once you recognize that the 5.4% annual pace is the highest since the 1980s.[10] Non-petroleum import prices are rising 80% faster than the nominal growth of GDP. It should be obvious to everyone that the current scenario can't last. Something, as they say, has to give.[10]
Adding insult to injury, import prices soared 14.8% measured over the 12 months through last month, as our chart below shows.[10] Friday's update on import prices once again paints a troubling picture on pricing pressures.[10]
Over the last year, agricultural export prices are up 33.4 percent, another new record. [4] The good news is that EXPORT prices are also rising. The bad news is that this is all inflationary as hell. At least we aren't seeing 10% yields on CD's and 9% or higher on mortgages. As far as the critics calling for China being unfair with having its peg to the U.S. Dollar. be careful what you wish for.[3]
Statistics Canada said that the Canadian new housing price index rose 0.3% in March, compared to 0.6% growth in the previous month. [6] The Labor Department's import-price index is forecast to increase by 1.8 percent in March compared with February, according to a survey of Wall Street economists by Thomson Financial/IFR.[13] Petroleum prices for March rose 9.1 percent, the largest increase since November.[4] A large factor was petroleum prices, which have risen 60 percent over the past year, although prices for food, feed and beverages have increased 14 percent.[5]
Crude oil prices rose 8.4 percent, coal and gas fuel prices rose 7.1 percent, and natural gas prices rose 7.7 percent.[4] Imported oil prices rocked 9.1% in March 2008, natural gas jumped 7.7%, and feeds/foods/beverages increased 2.5%.[1]
The price of imported natural gas also surged, by 7.7% in March, after rising 9.9% in February.[11]
The pair moved as German wholesale prices rose faster than expected in March.[8] Prices from the European Union prices rose by +1.6% and prices from Japan rose by +0.1%.[3]
A report from the Federal Statistical Office showed Friday that the wholesale price index climbed 7.1% year-on-year in March. [8] Prices for a range of industrial supplies also showed significant increases.[4] The increase marked the fastest pace of price growth since November of 2007 and exceeded economist estimates of a 1.9 percent increase.[8] The rise followed 0.2 percent and 1.5 percent increases in February and January.[7]
How troubling is a 5.4% rise in non-petroleum imports? In search of an answer, consider that inflation generally in the U.S. is climbing by 4.0%, based on the annual rise in consumer prices through February.[10] The index, which economists consider a useful tool in measuring the overall inflation rate, is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am EDT.[13] Stronger inflation could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates during the current economic slowdown.[5]
Even the Labor Department's reputation for under-reporting inflation statistics can't mask the high inflation.[3] The greenback was little-changed against the British pound after the Labor Department data on Friday in New York.[6]
The currency traded with little economic news from the area. The franc rose steadily against its American counterpart on Friday morning. [8] The currency bounced between a high of 101.58 and a low of 101.04. The franc remains near its highest mark against the yen since mid July. The Swiss currency rose against its European counterpart in trading on Friday morning.[8]
Historical prices and fundamental data provided by Hemscott, Inc. [2] An interruption in the new era of inflation may be coming, depending on what happens in the global economy. It wouldn't take much on the marginal-demand front to deflate the oil bubble a bit from current levels, which would go a long way in pushing pricing benchmarks down.[10]
SOURCES
1. March U.S. import prices rise 2.8% on higher oil costs - BloggingStocks
2. U.S. Import Prices Jump 2.8% in March
3. 24/7 Wall St.: And The Government Says Inflation Is WHAT?
4. US March import prices rise 2.8 pct vs 1.8 pct rise expected - Forbes.com
5. UPDATE 1-US import prices rise more than expected in March | Markets | Markets News | Reuters
6. RTTNews - Currency Trading, Currency Market Update, Trading Opportunities, US Market Update .
7. www.wbjournal.com - March Import Prices Up 2.8 Percent
8. RTTNews - Forex News top stories, Forex Trading, European Market Update, Currency Market Update, Forex trading.
9. Free Preview - WSJ.com
10. Soaring Import Prices Paints a Troubling Picture - Seeking Alpha
11. U.S. March import prices rise 2.8% vs. 2.2% expected - MarketWatch
12. US import prices grow above expectations in March - Forex News | IBT FX Center
13. Ahead of the Bell: Import price index
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