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Apr-16-2008Google click stats slump(topic overview)
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The New York Times says a report by search advertising technology company SearchIgnite is shaking things up. Its study found that in the first quarter, Google lost share to Yahoo in the United States. It found spending by search advertisers on Yahoo grew a 57 percent while spending on Google grew only about half that. That put Google'''s total share of search ad dollars down slightly to 70.4 percent, while Yahoo'''s rose to 24.2 percent. [1] Yahoo! YHOO outpaced Google GOOG and Microsoft MSFT in search advertising spending in the first quarter. The Internet giant, which is the throes of a takeover battle with Microsoft, showed its worth when it posted a 57.6% growth in search ad spending in the first quarter compared to a year ago, according a study released Tuesday by SearchIgnite, a paid search management technology solutions firm. That growth helped Yahoo! boost its marketshare of search ad spending to 24.2% from 19.6% in the first quarter compared to the same period a year ago.[2] Overall, search ad spending was up 28.5 percent in the first quarter but SearchIgnite noted that spending could slow in the second quarter. SearchIgnite also cautioned that Yahoo!'s strong first-quarter growth was based on a rough quarter a year ago when it was having problems with Project Panama, its platform to distribute online ads.[2]
One study by RBC Capital using data on ad-buying trends from Web search marketing firm SearchIgnite shows Yahoo outpacing Google in spending on search advertising, ad viewership and click-through rates during the first quarter.[3]
The research group said the number of times people searched on Google increased 31% in the first quarter, compared with the year ago period. Comscore said Google's U.S. search query market share increased 60 basis points from the previous month to 59.8%, while Yahoo Inc. (YHOO), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Time Warner Inc.' s (TWX) AOL all saw their market shares slip fractionally. The data from Comscore, which was not released publicly but provided by Wall Street brokerages, was seen as welcome news for Google after a difficult month in which many financial analysts lowered their expectations for the search company's first quarter.[4] ComScore also reported paid clicks falling overall, including at Sunnyvale-based Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) and Redmond, Wash. -based Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT). Google is planning to report its first quarter financials Thursday, and analysts expect, on average, earnings of $4.52 per share on revenue of $3.61 billion.[5] Google's paid click rate for March grew 2.7 percent in March, a tally that was deemed "anemic" by analysts. Google's paid clicks have been the most overanalyzed metric of the first quarter, but we're about to find out whether they matter since the search giant reports earnings on Thursday.[6] For the third month in a row, ComScore data shows signs of weakness in Google's (GOOG) paid clicks, leaving investors to wonder about the company's upcoming first quarter earnings report, which is due after the close on Thursday.[7] Total clicks (includes organic and paid) were up 26% y/y indicating Google's audience ratings remain strong relative to competitors that are choosing to monetize more aggressively. At this juncture, I'd say that folks are guessing about Google's paid clicks and the impact they have on earnings. We'll know more tomorrow when Google reports its first quarter results.[6]
SearchIgnite's results follows a report late last month from research firm comScore that reported a 5% increase in ad-supported clicks for Yahoo! in February compared with only a 3% increase for Google and a 13% decline for Microsoft's MSN paid clicks. All three companies are reporting their earnings in the coming week: Google on Thursday, Yahoo! on April 22 and Microsoft on April 24.[2]
MSN ' s share of search spend fell to 5.4% from 5.9% quarter over quarter. This report tracked more than 22 billion impressions and 391 million clicks on Yahoo, Google, and MSN from January 1, 2006 through March 31, 2008 across more than 500 marketers, all of whom are clients of SearchIgnite directly or via its sister company 360i.[8] In quarter-over-quarter numbers, Yahoo'''s share of the market grew from 19.6% to 24.2%, while Google dropped from 74.5% to 70.4% and Microsoft dropped from 5.9% to 5.45%. SearchIgnite tracked over 22 billion impressions and 391 million clicks on Yahoo, Google, and MSN from January 1, 2006 through March 31, 2008 across more than 500 marketers, all of whom are clients of SearchIgnite directly or via its sister company 360i.[9]
The changes are part of Yahoo's overhauled search ad system, called Panama, which has enabled a series of changes over the last year and a half. One change was the ability for Yahoo to assign a quality ranking to each advertiser based on factors such as how often users click on their ads. Another was discounts to the price advertisers pay when users click on ads hosted on non-premier sites that use Yahoo for serving up ads. Yahoo has been trying to improve its search-ad results to boost its business, attract more advertising, and better compete against leader Google. Google has been adding refinements of its own, changes that yielded fewer clicks on ads but more revenue per click. The competition has been going on for years, but it's under more intense scrutiny with Microsoft's attempt to acquire Yahoo. The seriousness of the situation for Yahoo was spotlighted earlier this week when Yahoo announced a limited test of Google's search-ad delivery system alongside Panama. Google makes more money per click on its search ads than Yahoo, so using Google's ads could theoretically increase Yahoo revenue depending on how the proceeds were divided.[10] The ratio of paid clicks to searches dropped even faster than the number of paid clicks: it was down by 16% in the month of January. Perhaps America's foreclosure crisis and fear of recession among consumers have caused a downturn in advertising? That is possible, but unlikely, at least so far. eMarketer, another research firm, projects that online advertising in America will grow by 23% this year, economic troubles notwithstanding, because the measurability of the medium is too compelling for marketers to ignore. More to the point, users of rival search engines such as Yahoo! or MSN actually clicked more often on search ads during January and February. For the explanation to be economic, consumers using Google would therefore have to be more worried than those using other search engines. This makes no sense.[11]
If the results of a study by SearchIgnite, a search advertising technology firm, prove representative of the broader search market, something unusual happened in search ads in the first quarter: Google lost share to Yahoo in the United States.[12] Google's dominant search advertising share dipped to 71.1 percent from 74.9 percent the previous quarter, it said. "Yahoo increased its share of wallet meaningfully for the first time in several quarters," RBC analyst Ross Sandler said in a note to investors, referring to the SearchIgnite data.[3]
SearchIgnite, a search advertising technology firm, said Google lost advertising dollars to Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) in the first quarter.[13] A new study by a search marketer suggests that Yahoo's search ad business grew faster than Google's business in the United States in the first quarter.[12] Concern about the health of Google'''s business has been increasing through the first quarter as comScore continues to release negative reports about the search titan. This month was no exception: Google ranked #2 behind Yahoo for the total number of unique visitors in March.[14]
A report from research firm comScore showed Google gaining share against Yahoo in the overall Web search market in March, but gave no insight into how Google was doing converting Web searchers into ad viewers.[3] The report shows that spending by search advertisers on Yahoo grew a robust 57 percent while spending on Google grew only at about half that rate. That meant Google's total share of search ad dollars declined slightly to 70.4 percent, while Yahoo's rose to 24.2 percent.[12] NEW YORK - Yahoos share of search ad spending grew against rival Google but lost ground in its share of searches, according to a pair of new studies. Get stories by e-mail on this topic.[15] SAN FRANCISCO, April 15 (Reuters) - New industry data out on Tuesday showed Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile, Research ) may have started gaining share in the Web search ad market against Google Inc (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research ) even as Google's share of search audience inched up.[3]
Yahoo!, Microsoft, News Corp, Time Warner and Google all play a role in the latest dramas around Microsoft's offer to buy Yahoo! The Internet giant wants to see if can outsource its search ads to Google.[2] The potential for search ad spending growth is a key reason for Microsoft's unrelenting drive to acquire Yahoo! The Internet giant has rebuffed Microsoft's $31-a-share, as it seeks other options, including talks about a deal with Time Warner's TWX AOL. According to SearchIgnite, Yahoo! posted gains in search ad spending of 79.2% in January, 37.3% in February and 43.9% in March.[2] SearchIgnite also noted that total ad spending growth slowed down in March, raising concerns about second-quarter ad spending. The report is welcome news for struggling Yahoo!, which needs to post stellar earnings on April 22 to force Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) to raise its offer for the Internet portal.[13]
According to a new quarterly study by SEO outfit SearchIgnite, spending by search advertisers on Google (GOOG) slipped to 70.4% (down from 74.5%), while spending on Yahoo (YHOO) grew to 24.2% in March from 19.6% at the end of the fourth quarter.[16]
SearchIgnite has released search marketing spend data for Q1 2008 and the news is good for Yahoo, and so-so for Google and Microsoft.[9] Overall, Yahoo had the greatest gains in search spend year-over-year, with an increase of 57.6%. This increase may be due in part to the company's weak Q1 in 2007 with the delayed launch of its Panama search marketing platform, the report speculated. Spend at the end of the quarter shows some weakness, according to the report, which was based on data collected from January 1, 2006 through March 31, 2008 from more than 500 marketing clients of SearchIgnite or its sister company 360i.[17] Although search marketing spend increased significantly over the past year, there may be a slow-down ahead, according to a report from SearchIgnite, a search management software company.[17]
Year-over-year, in the first quarter, search marketing spend increased across all three major search engines by 28.5%, according to the report.[17]
Wall Street started worrying about Google's growth last quarter, when it missed analysts' earnings estimates by a penny, despite posting a 17% jump in total earnings for the quarter. In its fourth-quarter earnings call, Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said Google's earnings were hampered by improvements to its search engine aimed at weeding out junk ads that pop up alongside search results. He dismissed suggestions that the slowing economy was to blame for Google's lackluster results. Declining clicks and missed earnings have prompted many analysts to lower their first-quarter estimates by 12 cents a share on average.[13] Is Google's blockbuster advertising machine sputtering? Wall Street will be looking for an answer from the Internet giant on Thursday when it reports first-quarter earnings. The number of clicks on ads hosted on Google's (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people ) site has been declining since January, leading many analysts to surmise that the sluggish economy is taking its toll on the company.[13] Door No. 2 is what has people worried. This paid click concern has set up something I'm not sure has ever happened in Google's history as a public company: Expectations for the company's earnings report are low, says William Blair analyst Troy Mastin. He cited currency gains as one buffer along with international growth for Google.[6] The hand-wringing over Google's paid click rate continues, with comScore reporting growth of 2.7 percent in March, a tally that analysts called '''anemic,''' reports ZDNet blogger Larry Dignan. It's not the 25 percent growth Google experienced last fall, but it's also not flat, as it was in January.[1] According to comScore, via a bevy of Wall Street research reports, Google's paid clicks were 582 million in March, up 2.7 percent ( Techmeme ). For those keeping score at home, Google had paid click growth of 3.1 percent in February and a decline of 0.3 percent in January.[6]
Mountain View-based Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) saw U.S. paid clicks up 2.7 percent in March compared to the same month last year, and clicks in the first quarter were up 1.8 percent compared to the year-ago quarter. Those figures show a decline from Google's fourth quarter growth rte of 25 percent and its third quarter growth rate of 48 percent.[5] Analysts were divided about the reasons for, and the impact of, the deceleration in Google's paid clicks, with some suggesting economic weakness could cause Google to fall short of Wall Street's first-quarter estimates. Others argued that efforts by the company to trim the number of clicks - which should enable it to increase the amount it charges per click - would boost the company's long-term prospects. The uncertainty over Google's paid click prompted many Wall Street analysts to trim their first quarter estimates for the company.[4]
SAN FRANCISCO -- The number of U.S. consumers clicking on Google Inc.' s search advertisements was weak once again in March, according to data that renewed questions about the health of the Internet giant's business. The March data from research group comScore Inc., released late Tuesday, marked the third-straight month that Google's paid clicks, the source of nearly all of its revenue, has disappointed analysts.[18] Paid clicks, the source of nearly all of Google's revenue, are not the same as search queries, but there has been a loose correlation between the two over the past few quarters.[4]
Now, don't pop the champagne just yet. That growth is for the number of search queries on Google, not " paid clicks "which is a more important measurementbut, there's at least something to suggest Google will not disappoint on Thursday.[19]
If Yahoo's growth is toward high end of the range, or higher, it will help Mr. Yang make the case that Microsoft should pay more. "If these numbers are an accurate reflection of the market, it could lead Yahoo to surpass expectations," Mr. Barnette said. Mr. Barnette noted that Yahoo had a particularly weak first quarter in 2007, as it launched its new search advertising system, which could make the 2008 comparison unusually flattering.[12] Yahoo gained significant market search spend share in the first quarter, primarily at the expense of Google.[14] Overall, Yahoo gained '''significant market share in Q1 as measured by search spend, primarily at the expense of Google,''' the report said.[17] Justice would be intervening and discriminating against consumers and vendors with the intervention but doing it marginally at Microsoft'''s behest. To the extent that Justice therefore would require marginal customers of Yahoo, both search participants and paid search advertisers, to withstand inefficiency, then Justice would be countermanding a core principle in the whole administration of anti-trust regulation, a mandate to facilitate the fairness of access to markets and the provision of efficiencies for consumers. I will suppose for these reasons that Justice would not intervene, either upon a limited deal for paid search outsourcing between Yahoo and Google, nor upon a merger between the two, nor upon the marginal attainment of 100% paid search market share by Google, whatever its means for attaining that total share that do not violate any of the elements of unfair monopolistic behavior. I further contend that Mr. Em-bolded has brought forth his most powerful yet only case, and I respectfully submit that it has been countered with my arguments.[20] Yahoo gained significant market share in Q1 as measured by search spend, primarily at the expense of Google.[8] Now here's something you don't hear every day: Google is losing search market share to Yahoo in the states.[16]
Googles search advertising market share fell to 71.1 percent from 74.9 percent during the period.[15]
Yahoo's first-quarter share of search spending by selected advertisers rose to 23 percent of the market, up from historic levels of 18 percent to 19 percent, SearchIgnite said.[3] In the first three months of 2008, search spending by selected advertisers on Yahoo grew to 23 percent of the market compared to historical levels of 18 percent to 19 percent, according to search advertising technology firm SearchIgnite.[15]
Microsoft's declined slightly to 5.4 percent. '''It was unusual and unexpected,''' said Roger Barnette, president of SearchIgnite. The study, which will be released Tuesday, is likely to be closely read as it comes just days before both Google and Yahoo are scheduled to report financial results for the first three months of the year.[12] Yahoo and Google, meanwhile, would presumably argue that outsourcing is just a smart business move for Yahoo, one that many Yahoo analysts have been recommending for years. That the move comes in response to Microsoft's bid is irrelevant, the argument will probably go: It's still a unilateral buy versus build decision. Even if a Yahoo-Google search partnership were patently illegal, which we don't believe it is (the arguments seem reasonable on both sides), we believe it would take several months to get a summary judgment and/or injunction. More likely, litigation surrounding the partnership will continue for years, long after any of this matters to the current Microsoft situation. For practical purposes, Microsoft won't want to take the risk that the Google-Yahoo partnership passes muster with the regulators, so it will likely increase its bid as a way of avoiding this risk.[20] The Yahoo-Google search test (YHOO) was the most important news in a flurry of Microsoft-Yahoo events last week (MSFT): If the test becomes a full-scale outsourcing deal, most analysts agree that this would drive an immediate, material increase in Yahoo's operating profit, perhaps as much as $500 million a year. Microsoft immediately responded to the test news by suggesting that a Google-Yahoo partnership (GOOG) was illegal and threatening to use whatever "options" it had at its disposal to block it.[20]
Analysts expect the software giant to report earnings of 44 cents per share on revenues of $14.5 billion for the quarter. Microsoft has also given Yahoo! a deadline of April 26 to come to the table and negotiate a deal or it will seek measures to replace its board and possibly lower its offer price.[13] Analysts expect the struggling Sunnyvale, Calif., Internet portal to post earnings of 90 cents per share on revenues of $1.3 billion. Microsoft is slated to report its third-quarter earnings a few days later on April 24.[13]
Analysts are expecting Google to report earnings of $4.52 a share on sales of $3.6 billion.[6] The consensus of analysts polled by Thomson Financial estimate that Google will report first-quarter earnings of $4.52 a share.[13]
'''While search budgets have been relatively insulated from marketing budget cuts, some of the incremental dollars have been taken off the table.''' Google and Yahoo are both set to issue earnings reports this Thursday and April 22, respectively.[14] A research note published Monday by RBC Capital Markets said Google was likely to report strong growth in Europe. For its part, Yahoo's earnings report will be closely watched to see whether Microsoft's Steve Ballmer or Yahoo's own Jerry Yang is right.[12]
Harrison Hoffman is a tech enthusiast and co-founder of LiveSide.net, a blog about Windows Live. The Web services report covers news, opinions, and analysis on Web-based software from Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, and countless other companies in this rapidly expanding space. Hoffman currently attends the University of Miami, where he studies business and computer science and writes about tech for The Miami Hurricane.[21] The company places search ads using various web portals including Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft.[15] SAN FRANCISCO, Apr. 14, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) Inc.' s family of Web sites continued to lead as the top Internet property in March, with 139.5 million visitors, followed by Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) sites with 137.5 million visitors and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) sites with 121 million visitors, according to results released Monday by comScore Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) Overall, March saw traffic increase to online radio, gambling and retail-health care sites, comScore said.[22] ComScore, an internet data researcher, said Googles sites received 59.8 percent of searches in March from among the top five search engines.[15] All five major search engines experienced growth in the quarter, notes vnunet.com, with Google taking 59.8 percent of searches in March, up from 59.2 percent in February.[1] When taking a closer look at the month-over-month ( " MoM " ) performance within the quarter, Same Advertiser Spend growth across all engines began to decline from 47.6% in January to 33.5% in February and to 19.1% in March.[8]
ATLANTA--( BUSINESS WIRE )--Search marketing spend showed strong increases in the first quarter of 2008, but spending growth slowed in March, which raises some concerns heading into Q2.[8] The SearchIngnite study show that year-over-year growth in dollars spent on Google declined sharply between January and February, and again between February and March. "It looks like it was a strong first quarter overall," Mr. Barnette said.[12]
The company's first quarter announcement will be as important as federal rate cut or economic forecastperhaps even becoming a sign of the severity of any recession. Hit (or exceed) projections and expect Google shares to make back some of what it's given up over the past couple of months.[19] Yahoo is also being closely watched. Yahoo'''s Jerry Yang has been touting reports of a healthy bottom line, saying Microsoft'''s unsolicited bid doesn'''t accurately reflect the company'''s health ''' and that its first quarter revenue would grow between 8% and 17%. Microsoft'''s Steve Ballmer, on the other hand, continues to argue that its takeover offer is fair ''' and even more valuable than when it was made on January 31, saying that Yahoo'''s business is in a state of continuous deterioration.[14] A surprising trend, given the general state of affairs over at Yahoo recently and one that may, may, bode well for the first-quarter results the company is due to report on April 22. In the face of Microsoft'''s (MSFT) hostile takeover offer and its claims that Yahoo's business is on a fast downward spiral, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang has insisted that the company will meet its first-quarter projections. That may well be the case, if SearchIgnite's metrics prove accurate.[16]
If borne out in Yahoo's report, the SearchIgnite results could add credence to CEO Jerry Yang's assertion that Microsoft's $44.6 billion buyout bid is too low.[1] Microsoft launched an unsolicited bid of $45 billion, or $31 per share, for Yahoo! on Jan. 31. Yahoo! has rejected the offer twice, saying it's too low. Last month, Yahoo! reiterated its first-quarter and full-year projections for 2008, in hopes of quelling Wall Street's concerns that it might post disappointing results.[13] 'The NCAA tournament drove substantial traffic to online gambling sites during the month, while the start of spring training made MLB.com one of the top gaining properties. Both events also contributed to ESPN.com's surge in the top properties rankings.' ESPN.com is owned by Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DCQ) (NYSE:DIS) Shares of Yahoo fell 34 cents to $27.99, Google shares dipped $6.90 to $450.60, Microsoft shares fell 26 cents to $28.06, and Disney shares lost 16 cents to $30.02.[22]
Yahoo'''s share of spend grew to 24.2% in March from 19.6% at the end of the fourth quarter, while Google'''s share declined to 70.4% down from 74.5%.[14] Google's share dropped from 74.5% to 70.4%, while MSN's share decreased from 5.9% to 5.4%. '''It was just a very strong quarter for Yahoo in all regards,''' Barnette said.[17]
MSN'''s share of search spend fell to 5.4% from 5.9% quarter over quarter. '''It was a stronger than expected Q1 for search marketing as advertisers continue to invest more money in the medium,''' said Roger Barnette, president of SearchIgnite, in a release.[14] The quarter also showed a '''mixed bag''' for retailers, SearchIgnite reported. Historically, the company has seen retailers increase their investment in search marketing quarter-to-quarter.[17]
Don't expect variable pricing to be switched on completely in one fell swoop. The change is launching in the United States and will arrive internationally later, spokeswoman Kristen Wareham said. It will begin with some keywords and eventually spread to all of them, she said. Yahoo alerted advertisers of the minimum-price change in February on its search marketing blog, and offered some answers to frequently asked questions page. This article was first published as a blog on CNET News.com.[10] A collaboration would be amazing, Microsoft could lend weight with money and Yahoo with programming and services. A collaboration wouldn't do a lot for search, but they could blow Adsense out of the water with an ad system open for all webmasters - an Adsense killer for people tired of adsense. The potential is there, and they could easily crush Adsense - which lies in tatters with webmasters disheartened by the decreasing effectiveness for advertisers and publishers.[12] In an attempt to improve the relevance of ads attached to search results, Yahoo plans to adjust the process advertisers use to bid for placement as soon as next week.[10]
Live Search News also lets you refine news results based on categories that are relevant to the story you're viewing. To access this functionality, just click "More on this story" for any article and you'll see relevant stories, along with these filters. One feature that sets Live Search News apart from Google News is its "Top News Videos" section. Not only are the videos provided relevant, but Microsoft has implemented the same preview technology that Live Search uses in its video search.[21] If you roll over any of the video images, a preview of the clip will automatically start to play. I can't say enough about the cool factor of this feature, in both news and in its regular video search. While Microsoft is not providing a specific number of sources that are included in Live Search News, it appears, at this point, to be significantly less than Google News' 4,500.[21] As a part of its Rome release, Microsoft's Live Search team has launched a new Live Search News, a direct competitor to Google News. At this time, Live Search News looks like a simplified version of Google News.[21]
Google News already has a fairly loyal user base and it benefits from the popularity of the search engine, so Live Search News may struggle to find an audience until the search engine grows in popularity.[21] Cuill, based in Menlo Park, California, was founded by Anna Patterson, former technical lead of Googlebase and an architect of Google's large search index TeraGoogle; Russell Power, who was also a technical lead on TeraGoogle; and Tom Costello, who developed an early prototype of IBM's WebFountain, an advanced search engine for mining business intelligence.[23] Web searches on Google grew in January, faster than on rival search engines, and dipped only slightly in February, but again less than on rival engines.[11]
The scare started when comScore, a research firm, reported in late February that Google's 'paid clicks' had decreased by 7% during January, and were flat compared with the same month a year earlier. Surfers who searched the web via Google itself, or who visited websites that belong to Google's advertising network, clicked slightly less frequently on the little text advertisements that Google often places on these pages. The idea that this disappointment was some sort of seasonal blip faded on March 26 when comScore reported that the numbers for February were no better.[11] Fears that the economic slowdown is going to take a bite out of Google's business reached fever pitch in late February, when comScore reported that the number of clicks on Google's ads, also known as "paid clicks," were flat in January compared to a year earlier.[12]
In an effort to account for Google'''s decision to reduce ad coverage, comScore recently began reporting a new data set to include not only paid clicks, but overall clicks on Google'''s sites.[6] ComScore said Google's U.S. paid clicks rose 2.7% in March compared with the same month last year. That meant Google's U.S.[18] Google's paid clicks in March were up 2.7% year over year. That follows a 3.1% rise in February and a 0.3% drop in January.[7]
Google is paid a few cents to a few dollars each time a user clicks on an ad. [13] In February, comScore said that the number of clicks on Google'''s ads were flat in January.[14] The number of people clicking on search advertisements through Google Inc. grew at a slow pace March for the third straight month, according to data from research group comScore Inc.[5] Market research group Comscore Inc. said late Monday that Google's volume of search queries in March grew 30% year-over-year, reversing a deceleration from January to February.[19]
It'''s not the origination of the search (the jumping off point) that is key, but rather the a-l-o-g-r-i-t-h-m that rules. The algorithm is the thing that delivers eyeballs directly to those things (whether commercial or non-commercial) that the eyeballs are most interested in. Sometimes those eyeballs are most interested for purely intellectual reasons (like browsing a library'''s shelves), but when the eyeballs are looking to buy something from a vendor, Google'''s algorithm has proven to give vendors more eyeballs that are motivated and ready to buy. thus a greater efficiency for generating revenue against the cost of paying for the search referrals. '''Google may come out the winner, but I don't see how profits will increase that much for Yahoo! through this deal, nor how consumers will benefit. Much of what you ask me is beyond my understanding, but it'''s not beyond Decker'''s''' and it'''s her test that'''s being run to determine answers to your questions stated here. If Decker didn'''t want or need to know, she wouldn'''t be running the test, nor writing her troopsters imploring them to not worry about what the test means for the company.[20] The source also believes that the fact that the Google-Yahoo search test is obviously a response to the Microsoft bid, combined with Google's public reaction to the bid and reported offer to help Yahoo resist the bid, would provide plenty of fodder for attorneys to argue that the outsourcing deal represents an "agreement" between Google and Yahoo.[20] If Microsoft, the government, or another party can show that the Google-Yahoo deal represents an agreement between the companies in which Google is effectively paying Yahoo to shut down a competitive service, the deal would be declared illegal under anti-trust law.[20]
Conditions were even worse for some of Google's rivals, with Yahoo (YHOO) down 3.1% in March, Microsoft's (MSFT) MSN down 15.1%, and Time Warner's (TWX) AOL down 2.3%.[7] Not a bad move for Google. Well, I see I'''ve lured out one em-bolded challenger who comes forward with these two points of argument that the association between Yahoo and Google (or certainly a merger) could be challenged on an anti-trust basis. My challenger both offers his argument and also provides the assumption of a valid defense at the same time.[20]
Is that likelihood the point that Bellini would find '''troublesome?''' Who could be made to buy a boat, if that boat won'''t float?''' Is that the business that Justice is about? I doubt it. This last comment missed the boat: And, is there any single one of the other boat builders, or any emergent new builder as yet unknown among boat builders, that could claim to be deprived of any opportunity it might otherwise have to build boats that float, simply because Google were to float the boats of Yahoo's marginal customers? Too, wouldn't the act of restraining Google also be tantamount to requiring that some of their customers' (current or prospective, marginal) boats should be sunk for the benefit of improving the illusion that the other builders' boats do actually float? That's it! Justice should sink their customers' boats and preserve the illusion.[20] If, on the other hand, Yahoo can demonstrate that the deal is merely a buy-vs-build decision in which Yahoo is unilaterally choosing to implement Google's AdSense service, then outsourcing would NOT be illegal. Our source says that an "agreement" in this case does not need to be an explicit contract: It merely needs to be a "meeting of the minds" in which the two largest players agree to do business with each other in order to enhance their businesses.[20] Evidently Mr. Em-bolded must've had enough. When you take your best shot and just get clocked for the effort, it's not a real confidence builder, huh? -- You have a big following and lots of readers, but none of them (nobody in media, anywhere. or business, anywhere. nobody, anywhere, period) will come here and defeat my contention, restated here: Google is not at risk of regulatory anti-trust restraint; not with a partial deal with Yahoo, not with a total acquisition of Yahoo, and not in any means whatsoever that otherwise do not violate the prohibitions against unfair monopolistic behavior.[20]
The most interesting statistics in the study were that Google lost share to Yahoo.[14] A separate study released today found that Googles market share of searches grew while Yahoos share fell.[15] This report is the latest in a series of quarterly reports released by SearchIgnite that tracks results across the engines. Previous reports include " Market Share Trends within the Engines and Their Impact on Brand Marketers " and " Yahoo Panama: Early Returns, " copies of which can be found at: http://www.searchignite.com/about_research.aspx.[8]
Yahoos search share fell to 21.3 percent in March compared to 21.6 percent the previous month.[15] #Googles world wide search share is 72%. In China Googles search share is 25% In Europe it's over 65% and in Australia there search share is not far from ours in the UK. The offer is out at $31 (although yes its cash/stock offer and the current value is a bit under 30).[20] Google's market share in search, our source believes, exceeds the anti-trust share threshold (70%).[20] Consolidating market share should be the prime focus, rather than focusing on search volume. Am interested to see their posted earnings.[19]
On the company's earnings call, "we'll be listening for qualitative updates on trends in the paid search industry--pricing, click-thru rates, coverage ratios--as well as any comments from management on the relationship between paid search and the economy," Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a recent note.[13] Fears eased somewhat, after other reports suggested that the comScore numbers might not be representative and after comScore itself made the case that the slowdown at Google may have been partially self inflicted. Many analysts have cut their estimates and are watching anxiously for Google's earnings report.[12] Comscore last month prompted concern among investors and analysts when it reported weakness in the number of consumers clicking on the Internet giant's search ads in February.[4]
Yahoo demonstrated the largest gain with a 57.6% increase in search marketing spend from last Q1. Since Q1 2007 was a rough one for Yahoo, due to Panama???s delay, those numbers should be examined with caution.[9] Spend from marketers who have utilized paid search for more than one year ( " Same Advertiser Spend " ) was up year-over-year in Q1 across all engines by 28.5%.[8] Year-over-year, same advertiser spending was up across all engines by 28.5%, but a slowdown in March spending growth is raising concerns for Q2.[9] '''There was more growth-rate decline for retail versus our other sectors,''' Barnette said. '''We took a look at segmentation of data for retailers in March and found that their conversion rates and their average order value ''' their basket size ''' year over year has declined,''' Barnette said. That kind of '''double whammy''' hurts retailers' return on their advertising dollars, which probably facilitated the decline in search growth rates in March, he added.[17] Despite retailers ' increase in YoY spend in January and February, March showed a dramatic slowdown, with retail search growth lagging behind spend growth from non-retail marketers.[8] The slowdown in spend growth coincided with a decline in conversion rates and Average Order Value ( " AOV " ) for retailers in the first quarter.[8]
The research group said the number of times people searched on Google increased 31% in the first quarter, compared with the year ago period.[19] Mr. Yang has said that's not so, and has insisted that Microsoft's offer undervalues Yahoo. In mid-March, Mr. Yang told investors that Yahoo would meet its first quarter projections, which call for net revenue to grow at between 8 percent and 17 percent.[12] Mr. Ballmer has argued that Microsoft's takeover offer is even more generous now than on January 31, when it was first made, in part because Yahoo's business has deteriorated further.[12]
Yahoo!'s strength lies in its technology based on open standards, which by definition, is incompatible with everything that Microsoft stands for. For the merge to be complete either 1) Y!'s services would have to be recreated in MS's propriatory framework, which would kill 99% of them, or 2) MS would have to 'open' its attitude towards software and computing, which in turn would devastate its core business products: Windows and Office. In both cases, MS would suffer heavy losses.[12]
Analysts say if Yahoo's growth comes in at the low end of the range, the results will disappoint investors and will reduce any negotiating leverage Yahoo has with Microsoft.[12] Investors will comb through Google's financial report Thursday for signs that concerns over the company'''s slowing growth are warranted.[12] Market share has not dropped. MSFT attempt to buy YHOO shows their real fear of GOOG and the dominance GOOG will have. Its basically a five year old company gorilla in a growth market.[7]
For the quarter, paid clicks were up 1.8 percent, which is a major deceleration from 25 percent growth in the fourth quarter and 48 percent in the third quarter.[6] There were some growth rate declines from January to February to March. '''I think looking at trends within the quarter will give you a little more pause than perhaps looking at the quarter as a whole,''' he said.[17]
UBS analyst Ben Schachter wrote that the company "would need to have implemented significant monetization improvements during the quarter in order to meet consensus estimates. Google may have made some pricing improvements, but we don't believe they will be enough." [5] A report on search advertising spending released Tuesday could spell more doom and gloom for the Mountain View, Calif., company.[13] SearchIgnite is a powerful search management and auction based optimization technology that simplifies large cross-engine search campaigns, providing marketers and advertising agencies with one central platform for managing, optimizing and tracking complex keyword portfolios in real time. Marketers who use SearchIgnite have full transparency and control over their campaigns with flexible bid management capabilities including manual bidding, rules-based bidding and portfolio optimization. Leading marketers and agencies depend on SearchIgnite to simplify and maximize the performance of their paid search campaigns.[8] The findings come from a new quarterly study released today from SearchIgnite, a leading provider of search and auction based media optimization technology managing more than $300 million in paid search annually.[8]
Actor Will Smith--or rather, his entertainment company, Overbrook Entertainment--is one of the investors behind a $2 million funding round for PluggedIn Media, a new site for watching high-definition and broadcast-quality music videos online, PaidContent.org reported Tuesday evening. Who would've thought this guy would go on to become a Web 2.0 investor? Carlton Banks would be proud. PluggedIn (wonder how much they paid for that domain?) reportedly has about 10,000 music videos in its catalog, thanks to contracts with Sony BMG Music Entertainment, EMI Group, and Universal Music Group.[24] Why would AOL buy a startup that helps bloggers and news sites publish links to related sites around the Web? Because it can sell ads on the service that appears on thousands of sites.[12] Some of the advertisers and Web analytics firms used on this site may place "tracking cookies" on your computer. Tracking cookies are small text files that can tell such companies what you are doing online, even though they usually don't record your name or other personably identifiable information. These cookies are used by these companies to try and match ads to a user's interests. They are used all over the Web, but in most cases, their presence is only disclosed deep inside privacy policies. We want you to know how to get rid of these tracking cookies if you like.[16]
The first possibility is that web users performed fewer web searches, leading to fewer results pages, ads and clicks. This turns out not to be the explanation.[11]
Google's share of ad dollars declined to 70.4% at the end of March from 74.5% at the end of December.[13] By contrast, Google's share of the market fell to 70.4% from 74.5%, and Microsoft's share fell to 5.45% from 5.9%.[2] Did Google, the world's largest web-search engine, peak on November 6, when its share price hit an all-time high of $742? Some people on Wall Street seem to think so. They now value the firm at around 40% less.[11] Yahoo! shares were up 37 cents, or $1.33, to $28.17 in late afternoon trading.[2] According to the report, Yahoo's share grew to 24.2 % at the end of Q1 compared to 19.6% at the end of Q4.[17] Yahoo!'s share of ad dollars grew to 24% from 19% during the period.[13]
This is to be expected, given that Yahoo has finally executed on its perpetually postponed ad expansion plan. It's simply that now ad managers can take some of the budget otherwise flowing to Google now pushed to Yahoo, and see which does better and what the mix should be.[12] It is a little early for Yahoo! to break out the champagne, but they need to lather, rinse and repeat whatever it was that produced those new ad revenues.[12] Most importantly, the Windows Mobile interface needs to be completely revamped to take on the iPhone and whatever the Google/open-source Android sect develops. It's a grand idea, but it's hard to see Microsoft or Yahoo or the combined companies pulling it off in the near term.[25] As for Yahoo! escaping Microsoft's jaws, the Jerry (Yang) is still out. I still can't see what this merger would do for either company, except maybe for bundling Yahoo IM with Microsoft's X-Box, as another commenter mentioned on this blog. Actions like this may be inventive, but they ain't gona stop the exodus of Yahoo!'s top talent if Redmond takes over.[12] I was just watching Tech Ticker where Aaron and Henry are debating the pros and cons of mergers of Yahoo with either Microsoft or AOL and weighing all of the implications it would have on Yahoo and I have come to one undeniable conclusion.[20] If you believe this comment is offensive or violates the CNET's Site Terms of Use, you can report it below (this will not automatically remove the comment).[26]
Owners of older Mac Pros, however, were miffed that Apple said the cards would only work with the latest Mac Pro generation, because firmware in the card could only support the PCI Express 2.0 standard unveiled with the new Mac Pros. The thing is, those cards were supposed to be backwards-compatible with older PCI Express standards. Many were irate that Apple appeared to be forcing them to buy a new Mac Pro to get the 8800 GT, but Nvidia said it would release an upgrade kit in due time. It's now available on Apple's site for $279. [27] AllThingsD.com is a Web site devoted to news, analysis and opinion on technology, the Internet and media. It is different from other sites in this space. It is a fusion of different media styles, different topics, different formats and different sources.[16] Our network comprises business and financial news web sites read by millions of business decision-makers around the world. Barron's is America's premier financial magazine, renowned for its market-moving stories and in-depth reporting.[7]
Google News definitely has more customization and alert options than Live Search News. Despite those differences in features, I prefer the design of Live Search News over that of Google News, and simplicity does a lot for readability. [21] With that kind of brain power, Cuill founders say the company is developing a new kind of search.[23] The company also employs search veteran Louis Monier, founding CTO of one of the Web's earliest search engines, AltaVista, and architect of eBay's search engine.[23] Rivals include Powerset, a natural language search engine; SearchMe, a graphical-based search engine; and Maholo, a human-edited search index.[23]
Spending by search advertisers on MSN declined to 5.4% from 5.9%, quarter over quarter. [16] " It was a stronger than expected Q1 for search marketing as advertisers continue to invest more money in the medium, " said Roger Barnette, President of SearchIgnite[8]
Google's become a victim of its success. It's network fraud has depressed rpc, and that was supposed to be address be 'cleaning up the traffic' last year. That didn't work, so now they're cleaning up the arbitrage advertisers. It's an incremental improvement at best. This is the beginning of the end of Google's dominance.[7] Assuming the data is'' accurate,'' we could see two factors behind the Coverage Ratio decline: 1. Google's ongoing efforts to improve both lead quality for advertisers and the user experience for searches. 2.[6]
Microsoft was up 23 cents, or 0.82%, to $28.29, and Google was off $3.66, or 0.81%, to $448.[2] Yahoo was second with 21.3 percent, followed by Microsoft at 9.4 percent, AOL 4.8 percent and Ask Network 4.7 percent.[1] The results were an improvement from the 59.2 percent market share it had in February.[15] Who is going to gain share from GOOG over the next several years? NOBODY. And when the economy accelerates, GOOG's ad business will likewise accelerate.[7]
Mark your calendars for this Thursday. That's when Google will reveal its Q1 numbers for 2008. This is normally a big day for investors anyway, but this time the stakes are higher than normal. [19] It'''s like I told Walter, I don'''t take prisoners. But they'''d have to first be harmed or discern harm caused to the detriment of the public, and prove either case. Otherwise, just wanting to swoop in is no different than a frog wanting to fly. Just because it'''d want to avoid bumping its butt when it hopped is not enough reason. Let me be clear, Dear''' Decker has already written her own troopsters how dearly '''clear''' she wants them to regard their '''commitment''' to search. so dearly clear in fact that they'''re testing an alternate service for their search participants and paid search vendors.[20] Eric joined Barron's as a feature writer in New York in 1988, after four years at the Dow Jones news wires. In 1995, he moved to California as the magazine's first reporter in Silicon Valley, creating the Plugged In column.[7]
SOURCES
1. Google's Paid Click Rate 'Anemic' in March - Headline Watch
2. Yahoo! Clicks Ahead of Rivals | Internet | GOOG MSFT YHOO - TheStreet.com
3. UPDATE 1-Yahoo search ads grew in quarter vs Google -report | Markets | Markets News | Reuters
4. Google Search Queries Bounce Back, Says Comscore
5. Google click stats slump - Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal:
6. Google's paid clicks anemic in March; Will it matter? | Between the Lines | ZDNet.com
7. Tech Trader Daily - Barron's Online : For Google A New Month, Same Story: Weak Paid Clicks
8. Strong Q1 for Search Marketing Amid Signs of Weakness Ahead
9. SearchIgnite Releases Q1 Search Marketing Data [SearchEngineWatch]
10. Yahoo refining search-ad bidding process : News : Internet - ZDNet Asia
11. The case of the missing clicks
12. Study: Google Lost Share of Search Ad Dollars to Yahoo - Bits - Technology - New York Times Blog
13. Google In The Hot Seat - Forbes.com
14. Study: Yahoo Beats Google in Search Ad Dollars Growth » Adotas
15. Yahoo Gains on Google for Search Ad Spending: Study - International Business Times -
16. Yahoo to Microsoft: Do I Hear $32 Per Share? $33? | John Paczkowski | Digital Daily | AllThingsD
17. Search growth rate declines at end of Q1: SearchIgnite Report - DMNews
18. Free Preview - WSJ.com
19. Google's 2008 First Quarter Results - Hit or Miss?
20. Is Google-Yahoo Search Deal Illegal? Maybe. Does This Matter? No. - Silicon Alley Insider
21. Microsoft hits back at Google with Live Search News | The Web Services Report - CNET Blogs
22. Yahoo sites remain as top Internet property in March -- ComScore
23. Ex-Googlers join queue in crowded search market - News - Builder AU
24. Will Smith thinks PluggedIn can get jiggy with it | Webware : Cool Web apps for everyone
25. Is there a Y!Phone is Microhoo's future? | Outside the Lines - CNET News.com
26. In China, returning to greener preplastic shopping tech | Sinobyte: CNET Blog on technology and the impact on China's environment, politics, and international affairs. - CNET Blogs
27. Nvidia's 8800 GT now available for older Mac Pros | Crave : The gadget blog
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