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 |  Detroit Free Press -
Nov-04-2009Mike Nofs wins state Senate seat, boosts GOP margin(topic overview)
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BATTLE CREEK -- The special election Tuesday in Battle Creek to fill the state Senate seat vacated by Mark Schauer when he went to Washington is being called the fourth most important race in the nation behind the three governors' races. Republican candidate Mike Nofs and Democratic candidate Marty Griffin are both running for the seat in the 19th district. Michigan GOP Chair Ron Weiser says his party is campaigning hard to win it. "It will give the Republicans a six vote majority in the Senate for this coming year and this is going to be a very important year because this is a year when we have to have structural reforms," says Weiser. He says without changes, whatevery they may be, the state's financial issues will only get worse in 2010. [1] Running are Libertarian candidate Greg Merle and independent Steven Mobley. Voting is reportedly on the light side, but regardless of voter turnout, those who did come out to cast ballots will decide who fills the State Senate seat in District 19 th. That seat has been empty since January 1 st. The two leading candidates in the race are Democratic State Representative Martin Griffin out of Jackson, who is saying that a vote for him will mean more money for the district, more jobs in the region, and more support for business development like the food and safety sector in Battle Creek. His principle contender, Republican Mike Nofs is pushing for more expansion of jobs, the elimination of small business taxes and more support for State Police. Newschannel 3 recently spoke to the candidates and asked them what they think voters are looking for in the campaign. "Look and see who is more effective," said Nofs, "I've had 21 bills singed and I think he's had one bill signed.[2]
With 16 percent of precincts reporting, former Republican Rep. Mike Nofs (NAWFS) of Battle Creek had 70.4 percent of the vote, or 4,085 votes, to 23.6 percent, or 1,366 votes, for Democratic Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson.[3]
Mike Nofs Former Rep. Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) has beaten Rep. Marty Griffin (D-Jackson) in the 19th Senate District special election, according to an analysis of returns by Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS). As of 8:55 p.m., Nofs was leading Griffin 65 percent to 29 percent in his home county of Calhoun, with 73 percent of precincts reporting in unofficial returns.[4] One example is the special election in Michigan's 19th State Senate District where Republican and heavy favorite Mike Nofs is squaring off with Democrat Martin Griffin to replace Democrat Mark Schauer, who was elected to Congress last fall.[5] Former state Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek has won a special election to fill an open seat in the Michigan Senate. The Republican's win Tuesday pads his party's advantage in the Senate.[6] It looks like Mike Nofs will win the special election in Michigan's 19th State Senate District.[7]
If Republican candidate Mike Nofs wins the state Senate seat tonight, Democrats would need to win four seats in 2010 to be in the majority.[8] On Tuesday night, four candidates are vying to take over the 19 th District seat in Lansing, and the front runners include a couple of veterans of the state legislature. They are current State Representative Martin Griffin, a Democrat, and former State Representative Mike Nofs, a Republican.[2]
"Governor Granholm came into a situation that no matter who was elected, there weren't going to have a pleasant term in office," Griffin said. "I don't think it's fair to comment on her performance, though she has certainly done some things in a way differently than I might have, but I wasn't in her shoes or in the legislature." The current winds seem to point towards a Republican takeover of Lansing next fall, but Demas believes the party is still rebuilding and hasn't yet reached the point where they can take advantage of the wave of bad economic news and scandal that have affected the Democrats. That's why she believes a third-party candidacy could be potentially viable next fall, most likely coming in the form of conservative of libertarian challenger similar to Doug Hoffman in NY-23. Michigan has had its share of colorful candidates for governor in the past including former Kevorkian attorney Geoffrey Fieger, but it would be fair to say the state's political bench is not deep at this point. Democratic House Speaker Andy Dillon has garnered bi-partisan support for his proposal to consolidate the state's employees into one healthcare plan and is said to be contemplating a run at governor.[5] Griffin is a pro-life, pro-gun Catholic and confirmed bachelor who served as mayor of Jackson for 12 years before getting elected to the state House in 2006. His father Michael also held his current seat for over 25 years. Griffin agrees that the state needs to overhaul its entire taxing structure, but thinks it's unlikely to happen with six-year term limits in place. He said he's in favor of extending term limits to twelve years for each chamber to allow legislators to become familiar with the process and engage in long-term planning.[5] "Nofs has run a more focused campaign. Marty has no real message, his message is that I'm a nice guy," Steusloff said. "Griffin was mayor of my hometown for twelve years, ran for the state House a few times, his dad held that seat. Rightly or wrongly, he's got that career politician label attached to him." Both Nofs and Griffin were realistic about the prospects of a recovery in the automotive industry, admitting that even if the Big Three survive, they will likely never return to their former prosperity. Both spoke of the need to attract other industries to the state, though they differed on the specifics. Nofs touted the energy bill he helped write as a legislator, which he said helped create jobs building wind turbines in Jackson. He also said he's a supporter of nuclear energy and wants to seem more energy jobs come to the state.[5] The GOP does better in special elections. It would be more of a bellwether if Griffin won." For his part, Nofs seemed confident about a victory and eager to take on the challenge of bringing jobs to a state facing almost 15 percent unemployment. A former police officer, Nofs served six years in the State House before term limits ended his tenure and has run a campaign that has been widely-praised by groups on both sides of the aisle, leading to endorsements from both business groups and unions. During our conversation he repeatedly stressed the need to reform the state's tax code to make it more friendly to businesses.[5]
Prior to the November election Nofs had served in the State House for six years, while Griffin is currently serving as a State Representative in the Jackson area.[2]
Nofs faces Democratic state Representative Marty Griffin in tonight's election.[8]
With 93% of precincts reporting, the Republican held a commanding lead. He was beating Democratic State Representative and former Jackson Mayor Martin Griffin by a margin of 57% to 39%.[9] In Jackson County, where Griffin lives, Nofs had a 66 percent-31 percent lead, with 33 percent of precincts reporting.[4]
"Look at races across the country and all the intensity is on the Republican side right now," Steusloff said. "I've talked to some folks in Lansing and it's not just the money on the Nofs campaign, it's volunteers also. It's been a well-run campaign." While he has been able to raise significant amounts of money in past races, Griffin attributed his fund-raising woes this time around to the economic situation in Jackson, which has been hit hard by the downturn in the manufacturing sector. "This time around it's been very difficult.[5] The GOP does better in special elections. It would be more of a bellwether if Griffin won." It will be interesting to see if the race gets lumped in with other likely Republican victories today, like the Virginia gubernatorial election. Both Nofs and Griffin are interviewed and you get a good sense of their different agendas.[10] The district primarily overlaps with the 7th Congressional district that Schauer now represents. Susan Demas, a political analyst, syndicated columnist and one of state's shrewdest political observers said the district has a slight Republican lean but elections are normally a toss-up. "I think that Nofs will win, he's done well with retail politics," Demas said, referencing Nofs massive fund raising advantage over Griffin. "I also think he should win.[5]
JACKSON -- Michigan Republicans cruised to an easy victory Tuesday, winning back a state Senate seat that had previously been held by now U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer.[11] Located in southern Michigan, the 19th State Senate district includes Calhoun and much of Jackson Counties and its biggest cities are Jackson and Battle Creek.[5]
LANSING, Mich. (AP) - A special election for an open seat in the Michigan Senate pits a current and former state lawmaker against each other.[3] Bill Ballenger is with Inside Michigan Politics. He says Democrats will struggle to hold the Senate seat in this special election. "It is true that if it's a special election, Republicans tend to turn out in higher percentages than Democrats do in special elections," says Ballenger, "But this seat could either way under almost any circumstances."[8]
ANN ARBOR, MI (MPRN) - If a Republican wins control of an empty seat in the state Senate, it could make life more difficult for Democrats trying to gain control of the chamber next year.[8]
Republicans gain the seat held by Democrat Mark Schauer, who won a seat in Congress. They also expands their lead in the GOP-dominated chamber. "It is exciting to see people stand up against the status quo and work to Fix Michigan," said Ron Weiser, chair of the Michigan Republican Party.[9] Republican Mike Nofs' decisive victory in the heart of Schauer country is a sign that Michigan voters are sick and tired of the reckless policies of Nancy Pelosi and the Granholm/Cherry administration. Mark Schauer should take these results to heart and reconsider his decision to support the trillion dollar government takeover of healthcare."[4]
Republicans, who expect to pick up the seat vacated by now-U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) certainly think so.[10] The seat was vacated in January by Democrat Mark Schauer (SHAUW'-ur), who was elected to Congress.[12] Griffin, D-Jackson, and Nofs, are competing to fill the vacancy left by Mark Schauer, who was elected to Congress last fall.[13]
"Tonight, thousands of Mark Schauer's constituents went to the polls and soundly rejected the failed Democratic policies that have created more government instead of more jobs.[4]
Demas said Walberg's defeat of Schwarz provided the template for Hoffman in New York. Regardless of who wins today, it's clear that the state must find a new direction and quickly, as it currently loses more college graduates than any other state. Both candidates said stopping the exodus begins and ends with creating jobs. "That's the frustrating part, the brain drain," Nofs said, referring to the example of his own son, now a deputy sheriff in Sarasota, Florida.[5] I really concentrated on Jackson County," Nofs said. "Their new senator from Battle Creek will be over there a lot."[13]
If Republican Mike Nofs is successful in retaking the seat and adding a new member to the Republican majority, it will have direct and meaningful consequences on the 2010 election's and its effects will be felt well into the next decade.[5] On the Republican side, Oakland County sheriff Mike Bouchard and attorney general Mike Cox have emerged as the early front-runners. Today's race could also have implications for the 7th District race next fall, when Schauer will likely be defending his seat against former Congressmen Tim Walberg, a hard-right conservative who defeated incumbent Joe Schwarz in the 2006 primary.[5] Schauer knocked off incumbent Republican Tim Walberg to take the congressional seat in 2008 Democratic groundswell led by President Barack Obama. 'What can I say? It's a Republican year.[11]
Some pundits had suggested the outcome would be a bellwether leading into the 2010 election when Michiganders will elect a new governor and all 38 Senate and 110 House seats. [11] At the state level the biggest impact on next year's election seems to be the public's disgust with Lansing in general and lame duck Governor Granholm in particular.[5] Across the country voters are casting ballots for state and local races that could have greater implications for next year's mid-term elections.[5]
Democrats are unlikely to have much success expanding the program or implementing other industry-targeted subsidies in the state's current budgetary climate. Given the unique dynamics of the 19th District race, it's clear that much more is at play than a simple referendum on national party politics.[5]
"We have to have a group of people that get it right rather than pushing something through and having to go back and fix it." Both candidates promised that win or lose they would run again when the seat is up next fall, though Griffin's lack of success on the fund-raising front has led some locals to question whether his heart is really in the race.[5]
Republican pollster and Jackson native Ryan Steusloff of Wilson Research Strategies said Nofs' campaign has tapped into the growing unrest among conservatives in Michigan. [5] Nofs will serve the remainder of a term that expires at the end of 2010. His victory means Republicans will enjoy a 22-16 majority in the Senate.[6]
SOURCES
1. WKZO | Special Election to Decide Battle Creek State Senate Seat
2. Top Stories: The race to fill Mark Schauer's State Senate seat | state, newschannel, 0in : WWMT onSet Site - WAP
3. Open seat in Michigan Senate to be filled - WLNS TV 6 Lansing Jackson Michigan News and Weather - WLNS.COM |
4. BREAKING: Mike Nofs defeats Marty Griffin in 19th Senate District special election | Capitol Chronicles - Susan J. Demas - MLive.com
5. The Real Bellwether May Be In Michigan - The Atlantic Politics Channel
6. Nofs Wins Vacant State Senate Seat
7. In Michigan Bellwether, Nofs Pads His Lead - The Atlantic Politics Channel
8. MICHIGAN: Michigan 19 (2009-11-03)
9. Nofs Looks To Win State Senate Seat - WLNS TV 6 Lansing Jackson Michigan News and Weather - WLNS.COM |
10. Is the Mike Nofs-Marty Griffin Senate race today a bellwether? | Capitol Chronicles - Susan J. Demas - MLive.com
11. Mike Nofs wins state Senate seat, boosts GOP margin | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
12. Open seat in Michigan Senate to be filled - Examiner.com
13. UPDATE: Nofs' lead growing over Griffin; Dunigan defeats Ludwig in mayor's race; Jackson Public Schools bond issue passes; Breeding defeats Woods in first ward | Jackson News - - MLive.com
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